The U.S. side is applying maximum pressure with high-profile tactics, Iran claims to be prepared for war, and Trump is "curious" why Iran is not surrendering.

The new round of US-Iran negotiations is scheduled to take place in Geneva, Switzerland, on the 26th. Ahead of the talks, the US has once again issued threats and exerted pressure. On the 22nd, US media quoted sources revealing that President Trump is inclined to carry out an initial strike against Iran in the coming days, followed by a larger-scale military attack in the coming months, to force Iran to “surrender” and reach an agreement according to US demands. Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi responded the same day in an interview with US media, stating that if the US launches an attack, Iran’s response would be a reasonable and lawful act. He also emphasized that the current situation has changed compared to ten years ago, and both sides may reach a “better agreement.” In response, US Special Envoy Wittekov expressed on the 22nd that Trump is “curious” why Iran has not capitulated under US pressure. Although the international community generally hopes that the US and Iran can reach an agreement through negotiations, many media outlets are concerned that, due to setbacks Trump has faced domestically, he might trigger a geopolitical risk of US-Iran conflict to “save face.”

Last Chance Before Military Action?

According to Reuters, Omani Foreign Minister Badr al-Busaidi posted on social media on the 22nd that the new round of US-Iran negotiations will be held in Geneva on the 26th. Busaidi stated that all parties will double their efforts to finalize an agreement.

US Axios reported on the 22nd that this round of diplomatic talks could be the “last opportunity” for the US to give Iran before launching large-scale military action. The US and Iran are expected to discuss Iran’s detailed proposed nuclear agreement during this round. During the previous US-Iran talks on the 17th, the US demanded Iran submit a detailed written plan regarding the nuclear deal by the 24th. The US claims it requires Iran to achieve “zero enrichment” of uranium, but if Iran can demonstrate that its plan can thoroughly block all pathways to nuclear weapons development, the US is willing to consider allowing Iran to retain a “symbolic uranium enrichment capacity.” Reports indicate that the US and Iran have fundamental differences in their public stances on uranium enrichment, each setting “red lines,” but Trump’s consideration of allowing Iran to keep a “symbolic uranium enrichment capacity” suggests there may still be a slight possibility of reaching an agreement.

Meanwhile, the US has again been openly pressuring Iran. The New York Times reported on the 22nd, citing internal government sources, that although no final decision has been made, Trump has told his advisors that he is “inclined to carry out a preliminary strike against Iran in the coming days,” to force Iran to “surrender” and reach an agreement as per US demands; if this “targeted” initial strike fails to compel Iran, Trump “reserves the possibility of a larger military strike later this year.” The report states that the US military targets could include the Iranian Revolutionary Guard headquarters, nuclear facilities, and ballistic missiles.

European news outlet France 24 cited analysis from former CIA officer Kiriakou on the 22nd, noting that although Trump previously publicly set a 10- to 15-day deadline for Iran to accept US conditions, such deadlines are often “tactical deception,” and that “the president has given Iran a final deadline of 10 days to two weeks, but an attack could be launched at any time, to catch the opponent off guard.” Before last June’s US bombing of Iran’s nuclear facilities, there was an indirect US-Iran negotiation, and Trump had also indicated giving Iran “a few weeks.”

The Only Path to Break the Nuclear Deadlock

Regarding the US threat of military action to force Iran to surrender, Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson stated on the 23rd that any US attack, including limited strikes, will be regarded as an act of aggression, and Iran will respond strongly based on its inherent right to self-defense.

According to Iran’s Mehr News Agency, Iranian Army Commander Jahan Shahi inspected a mobile assault brigade along the northwestern border on the 22nd, stating that Iran is continuously monitoring all enemy movements along the border. He emphasized that being prepared for full-scale war is a key deterrent to prevent misjudgment and hostile actions by the enemy.

As tensions between the US and Iran escalate, the Financial Times reported on the 22nd that Iran has reached a “secret arms deal” worth about 500 million euros with Russia. The report states that just days after the US and Israel attacked Iran’s nuclear facilities last year, Iran proposed to Russia the purchase of thousands of advanced portable anti-aircraft missiles. Analysts believe this indicates Iran is rebuilding its air defense systems, which were heavily damaged by the US and Israel, and that Iran is no longer relying solely on fixed large-scale air defense systems.

On the 22nd, Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi emphasized in an interview with CBS that if the US launches an attack, Iran’s response would be both reasonable and lawful. He said Iran’s missiles cannot reach the US mainland, so Iran would target US military bases in the region. However, Araghchi reiterated that diplomacy remains the only way to resolve the nuclear deadlock between Iran and the US. He stated that the current situation has changed compared to ten years ago, and both sides may reach a “better agreement” than the 2015 Iran nuclear deal. But he also emphasized that Iran will not give up its right to uranium enrichment for peaceful purposes, which is a sovereign right.

“Eight Presidents, Same Failed Strategy”

Regarding Iran, US Special Envoy Wittekov told Fox News on the 22nd, “The president also discussed this with me this morning… I don’t want to use the word ‘frustrated,’ because the president understands he has many options, but he’s curious why they haven’t surrendered… The president is puzzled why Iran has not capitulated under such high pressure.” In response, Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi posted on social media, “Want to know why we don’t surrender? Because we are Iranians.”

“Eight Presidents, Same Failed Strategy.” The Tehran Times reported that over the past 40-plus years, Trump and the previous seven US presidents have all tried to pressure Iran into abandoning its strategic assets and independence, but all have failed. Over the years, Iran has endured war, sanctions, and the assassination of commanders. Iranians have a long-standing tradition of turning external threats into national unity. Now, Trump bets that pressure and military threats will make Iran surrender, but he is likely to repeat his predecessors’ failures once again.

France 24 also reported on the 22nd that after the US Supreme Court ruled on the 20th that Trump’s tariffs were unconstitutional, Trump announced a 10% import tariff on all countries worldwide. This temporary tariff measure is only valid for 150 days and has little practical significance, but it clearly reflects Trump’s political desire to “save face.” Experts warn that, given the current escalation of US-Iran tensions, if Trump attempts to use a conflict to resolve domestic issues, the world could once again plunge into turmoil.

Source: Global Times

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