Texas Pacific Land Corporation stock price rises 3%, KeyBanc comments

2026-02-24 10:38:20

Investing.com – Texas Pacific Land Corporation (NYSE: TPL) stock rose 3% on Monday after Keybanc raised its target price to $639, citing increased investor interest and strong growth prospects across the company’s business segments.

Keybanc analysts noted that by 2026, client inquiries about Texas Pacific Land have surged significantly, coming from long-only firms, traditional long/short funds, and diversified investors. The company stated that many clients are seeking preliminary discussions about the company, which has gained 74% this year, compared to only a 1% increase in the S&P 500.

Analysts attributed the recent stock price increase to two developments: Texas Pacific Land’s December investment in Bolt Data, and subsequent media reports about a deal between Bolt and Google. Keybanc said these events have driven a reset in market expectations for the company’s earnings growth and stock potential.

Keybanc indicated that the company now uses a segment-based valuation model for Texas Pacific Land, applying a 10% discount rate to forecasted earnings. The firm noted that much of the recent stock price rise is driven by investor valuation expectations for the water business segment.

The analysts raised their earnings forecasts for Texas Pacific Land for 2026 and 2027, reflecting increased water sales revenue after a record-breaking fourth quarter and expectations for continued growth.

Keybanc expects all existing business segments of Texas Pacific Land to achieve strong organic growth, including oil and gas royalties, water sales, produced water royalties, and surface and land easements.

The company pointed out that permits in the Delaware Basin show longer horizontal well lengths, supporting the view that the current 19.5 net acres of visible land can achieve organic production growth. Keybanc noted similar trends in water sales and produced water royalties, with sales continuing to rise.

For 2027, Keybanc expects growth in surface and land easements, as the re-setting of right-of-way payments will increase royalty payments by approximately 35%.

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