Zong Xiaoli: The US dollar initially fell then rose, gold initially rose then fell. What's the underlying logic? How to respond?

Happy New Year to everyone! Wishing you a joyful Spring Festival and all the best in everything! After a holiday break, we are officially back to work today, and the market reviews and gold analysis have resumed normal updates. Please stay tuned…

Currently, the US dollar index is at a critical point, especially influenced by the Supreme Court ruling on the 20th of this month, which put significant pressure on the dollar index, causing a sharp decline. However, as the dollar rebounded yesterday, it indicates that market sentiment and actions have returned to the previous rhythm, aiming to attract capital back by pushing up the dollar index. As long as this main trend remains unchanged, the dollar index will continue to rise. Additionally, tonight there will be President Biden’s State of the Union address, which could have a considerable impact on the market, so don’t ignore it. Always stay alert for the possibility of the dollar index strengthening and try to follow the trend…

Regarding gold, it surged yesterday but dropped sharply today, creating a rollercoaster market. Many people are confused—why does it change suddenly when the outlook for gold is supposedly positive? Is the Middle East situation cooling down instead of heating up? Honestly, that’s somewhat true. Despite Trump’s various escalations and threats, he is actually hesitant to give the order to strike, as he is afraid to act impulsively. Why is the situation tense now? It’s mainly to create leverage for negotiations. As long as negotiations continue, there won’t be a need to take military action. So, there’s no need to worry too much. However, we can’t rule out the possibility of action in the future—if the situation demands it, they will act. That’s why gold has been so volatile—rising when tensions are high, falling when tensions ease. This has made recent trends very chaotic and difficult to predict. Everyone should be very cautious—only trade when you understand the market, and avoid acting if you don’t. Stay vigilant!