BTC Price Rally Unlikely Before March, Traders Say Amid $420M ETF Exodus

The cryptocurrency market is grappling with sustained selling pressure as Bitcoin slides into year-end, with profit-taking eroding gains from a spectacular 2025 rally. BTC price has retreated significantly from its highs, reflecting a broader shift in investor sentiment from accumulation to realization of gains. The bearish tone has infected the broader crypto ecosystem, with major altcoins following Bitcoin’s downward momentum.

Profit-Taking Weighs on BTC Price Amid Year-End Liquidations

Trading activity late in the final weeks of the year showed relentless selling, with Bitcoin dipping below key support levels as both retail and institutional investors unwound positions. BTC price action reflected classic end-of-year behavior, where portfolio managers lock in profits after extended bull runs. Notably, the asset has contracted approximately 4% over the recent period, marking one of the weakest performances in years—a stark contrast to the explosive gains earlier in the cycle.

This capitulation extended beyond Bitcoin into the broader market. Ethereum fell over 5%, while Solana’s SOL, Cardano’s ADA, and XRP each declined by 3-4%. The losses were broad-based, with the CoinDesk 20 index tracking major cryptocurrencies dropping 2.7% in a single trading session. Meme assets including Dogecoin and Shiba Inu experienced sharper declines of 5-6%.

Options Markets Signal Muted Near-Term Price Action, March Upside Expected

Despite the current weakness, market structure suggests traders expect a turning point ahead. According to analysis from QCP Capital, a Singapore-based derivatives firm, funding rates remain healthy—a sign that leverage isn’t getting flushed out in capitulatory fashion. This hints at patient capital waiting on the sidelines rather than panic selling.

The derivatives market is painting a picture of bifurcated expectations: near-term caution coupled with conviction for a mid-first-quarter rally. Options positioning shows traders buying significantly more March call options at strike prices around $120,000-$130,000, indicating confidence in a price recovery within the next 8-12 weeks. Risk reversals in the options market—a measure of relative demand for bullish versus bearish bets—have shifted decidedly in favor of calls, suggesting asymmetric positioning for upside moves.

These patterns suggest BTC price movement will remain subdued through early January, with the real action potentially igniting once President-elect Donald Trump’s administration begins implementing its pro-crypto policies. Traders expect February to mark a transition period before March accelerates the recovery narrative.

Institutional Pullback: ETF Outflows Reflect Cautious BTC Price Outlook

Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $420 million in net outflows during recent trading sessions, a significant reversal from the inflows experienced earlier in the month. The redemptions reflect institutional hesitation about near-term Bitcoin price prospects. Fidelity’s FBTC led the selling with $154 million in redemptions, followed by Grayscale’s GBTC at $130 million and BlackRock’s IBIT at $36 million.

The aggregate impact has been meaningful: since mid-December, ETF products have seen more than $1.5 billion leave the market—erasing the gains from nearly $2 billion in inflows that characterized the first half of December. This reversal signals that larger capital allocators are taking a more defensive stance on Bitcoin price appreciation in the near term, preferring to wait for clearer inflection points rather than chase rallies on thin conviction.

Adding nuance to the selling narrative, MicroStrategy—the institutional Bitcoin proxy—continues accumulating, though its recent $209 million purchase of 2,138 BTC drew little market enthusiasm. The company’s stock declined sharply following the announcement, suggesting that even mega-cap corporate buyers aren’t enough to counteract the broader tide of profit-taking and tactical reductions.

Technical Bounce or False Signal? BTC Price Must Hold Key Levels

A sharp technical rebound jolted markets after the extended selling phase, with Bitcoin recovering to the $69,000-$70,000 range in what appears to be a relief bounce triggered by forced liquidations. Altcoins surged alongside the recovery, with traders rotating capital back into riskier assets on the bounce.

However, seasoned analysts urge caution. According to LMAX Group’s Joel Kruger, the rally lacks clear fundamental catalysts and instead reflects technical oversold conditions combined with thin liquidity. This suggests the bounce may not have staying power without fresh positive developments.

For BTC price to confirm a meaningful recovery, the market must demonstrate conviction by holding above critical resistance zones. Sustained breaks above $72,000 and especially $78,000 would signal the beginning of a structural uptrend. Until then, the bounce appears tactical rather than strategic—a temporary reprieve in an otherwise challenging period for Bitcoin price momentum.

The path forward hinges on policy announcements and macro signals that could justify sustained BTC price appreciation. Traders remain positioned for March to be the inflection point, but the street remains skeptical of significant fireworks before then.