Bitcoin Mining Cost Drops to $45K as Network Consolidates Around Profitability Threshold

According to JPMorgan’s latest analysis, the bitcoin mining cost has declined to approximately $45,000, down from the previous $50,000+ levels. This shift represents a critical consolidation in the miner ecosystem, where only the most efficient operations remain profitable. The recent data reflects the combined impact of network hashrate adjustments and power consumption changes following major protocol developments.

The Halving Effect: Why Mining Costs Declined

The Bitcoin network underwent its recent halving event, which reduces miner block rewards by 50%—a quadrennial occurrence designed to control supply inflation. Contrary to initial expectations, the hashrate did not immediately plummet following this reward reduction. Instead, miners continued operating longer than anticipated, primarily due to temporary revenue supplements from elevated transaction fees.

The delayed hashrate decline is significant because it shows miners were economically rational in their exit timing. As block rewards were cut, total miner compensation initially held steady through alternative fee income. However, this created a temporary equilibrium that masked the underlying profitability pressure, allowing inefficient operations to linger before eventually ceasing.

Runes Protocol’s Brief Revenue Boost

The launch of the Runes protocol—a new token creation mechanism on Bitcoin—created a significant spike in transaction activity immediately after the halving. Users flocked to create and trade tokens using this new standard, flooding the network with high-fee transactions. This activity proved decisive for miner economics in the short term.

“Bitcoin miners were able to offset the loss in issuance reward due to halving with the surge in transaction fees, keeping the block rewards for miners almost unchanged,” according to JPMorgan analysts. However, this phenomenon was inherently temporary. As the novelty of Runes faded and user activity normalized within weeks, transaction fees collapsed back to baseline levels. This dramatic fee correction exposed which miners could actually sustain operations on core protocol rewards alone.

The Sustainability Challenge for Miners

With the Runes revenue boost now evaporated, the miner economy faces a structural challenge: maintaining sustainable operational economics in a post-halving environment. The $45,000 bitcoin mining cost represents the new equilibrium where only efficient miners remain plugged in.

What’s particularly revealing is how power consumption dropped more steeply than hashrate during this adjustment period. This pattern indicates that operators with older, less efficient hardware equipment—often the highest power consumers per unit of hash produced—were forced offline first. These unprofitable miners represented the least efficient segment of the network, and their exit signals a natural consolidation toward operational excellence.

A critical feedback mechanism now shapes market dynamics: as Bitcoin prices fluctuate, the profitability threshold shifts correspondingly. Lower prices compress margins further, accelerating unprofitable miner exits, which reduces hashrate and increases the average bitcoin mining cost structure for remaining participants. This creates a cyclical dynamic that can either stabilize the network (by eliminating slack capacity) or trigger cascading exits during downturns.

Market Response: Price Dynamics and Altcoin Movement

Despite these structural challenges, Bitcoin briefly rebounded to $69,000 following weeks of selling pressure, triggering notable movement across altcoins including ETH, SOL, DOGE, and ADA, as well as crypto-related equities like Coinbase and Circle. Market analysts attributed this rebound primarily to short-squeeze dynamics and thin liquidity conditions rather than fundamental catalysts.

The technical bounce highlights a key dynamic: while mining fundamentals may be stabilizing around the $45,000 cost threshold, broader market sentiment remains fragile. Resistance levels at $72,000 and $78,000 represent critical technical zones that must be sustained to signal stronger structural momentum beyond tactical bounces.

JPMorgan’s near-term outlook remains cautious, citing persistent headwinds including limited positive catalysts and fading retail participation. The combination of normalized mining economics and uncertain price direction suggests the market is entering a consolidation phase where miner profitability depends heavily on sustained operational efficiency and disciplined capital allocation.