Don't be fooled by Bitcoin SSR! The more Bitcoin drops sharply, the faster capital withdraws.

The indicator measuring Bitcoin Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR) purchasing power has fallen to 9.36. Historically, this level is often seen as a sign that the market has sufficient potential buying power.

However, the latest on-chain data presents a completely different reality. The recent decline in this indicator is not due to stablecoin accumulation, but rather the result of continuous capital outflows from the entire crypto ecosystem.

Analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated that SSR is the ratio of Bitcoin market cap to total stablecoin market cap. A decline in this indicator can be caused either by an increase in stablecoins or by a shrinking Bitcoin market cap, and currently, it is the latter.

Data shows that the USDT market cap has dropped from a high of $187.2 billion on December 30, 2025, to $183.6 billion, with $3.6 billion flowing out in 60 days, and the 30-day change rate has been negative for 34 consecutive days.

Adler believes that, with USDT shrinking in tandem, this indicator no longer holds any bullish significance.

Meanwhile, the spot price of Bitcoin has significantly retraced, but the estimated leverage across all exchanges has remained around 0.219 over the past 90 days, with no obvious decline.

However, analysts suggest that this “sideways consolidation” at high levels indicates that speculative risks have not been cleared. If Bitcoin prices further decline, it could easily trigger a chain of liquidations.

The market’s fragility is fully reflected in price trends and holding data. According to HODL Waves data, a large portion of tokens bought at high levels in November 2025 are currently at a loss, accounting for 26%;

At the same time, realized net capital positions have shrunk by 2.26% over 30 days, with a value compression of $33 billion, further confirming ongoing capital outflows from the Bitcoin network.

Adler finally provided two hard indicators to judge when the market has bottomed out. First, the 30-day price change of USDT must remain positive to confirm new funds entering; second, the estimated leverage ratio needs to stop declining and rebound, indicating a warming of market risk appetite.

But before these two signals appear, the so-called falling SSR indicator is not a good entry point for buying the dip, but merely a mathematical result of capital outflows, and nothing more.

#比特币 #SSR indicator