Guotai Haitong: Initiates coverage on NIO-SW with an "Overweight" rating, target price HKD 50.59

Guotai Haitong releases a research report stating that it is the first coverage of NIO-SW (09866) with a “Buy” rating. The company’s sales volume has increased significantly, coupled with a higher proportion of high-priced models. In Q4 2025, the company achieved its first quarterly profit. With continuous expansion of the product lineup through 2026, the bank forecasts the company’s revenue to reach 87 billion, 130.6 billion, and 161.4 billion yuan in 2025/26/27. The bank uses the Price-to-Sales (PS) method for valuation, referencing comparable companies, and assigns a 2026 valuation of 0.85 times PS, corresponding to a target price of HKD 50.59 (based on an exchange rate of 1 HKD = 0.89 RMB). First coverage, with a “Buy” rating.

Guotai Haitong’s main points are as follows:

Sales volume growth combined with higher proportion of high-priced models, first quarterly profit in Q4 2025

According to the China Passenger Car Association, in Q4 2025, the company delivered a total of 125,000 new vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 72%, setting a quarterly delivery record. Among them, NIO, Ledo, and Firefly brands delivered 67,000, 38,000, and 19,000 units respectively, all hitting historical highs. The new high-end ES8 model performed outstandingly after its launch, accounting for 32% of Q4 2025 sales, significantly boosting overall profitability. The company’s adjusted operating profit (Non-GAAP) for Q4 2025 is estimated to be between 700 million and 1.2 billion yuan, with GAAP operating profit around 200 million to 700 million yuan, marking its first quarterly profit. Regarding cost reduction and efficiency improvement, according to “JieDian” reports, NIO CEO Li Bin stated that the Basic Operating Unit (CBU) mechanism has played an important role and emphasized the continued promotion and full implementation of this mechanism. The bank believes that with sustained sales growth, increasing high-priced models, and deepening cost reduction measures, the company’s profitability is expected to further improve.

New models are ready to launch, and the diversified product matrix continues to expand

Since 2025, the company has launched models such as Firefly, the all-new ES8, and Ledo L90, continuously improving its product lineup. In December 2025, NIO sold 22,000 units of the all-new ES8, also winning sales championships in large SUVs, three-row SUVs, and models priced above 400,000 yuan. The bank expects that in 2026, NIO will introduce new products such as ES9, ES7, and Ledo L80 to further enrich its product matrix and enhance market competitiveness.

Actively developing intelligent driving, building a high-level technology system through full-stack self-research

According to NIO’s 2025 full-stack technology annual report, the company’s self-developed intelligent driving chips, vehicle-wide operating system, and world model algorithms have been fully implemented. The bank believes that the company’s investment in intelligence will enter a harvest period, likely driving simultaneous improvements in product strength and sales volume.