Spring Festival consumption structure diversifies, real estate faces pressure, external constraints drive Japan's trade structure optimization, fiscal expansion highlights bank duration mismatch risk---0226 Macro Dehydration

Domestic Spring Festival consumption structure shows significant differentiation, with both travel numbers and spending reaching new highs. The real estate market continues to be under pressure. International oil prices, coking coal, and rebar prices have fallen. Agricultural products are entering a seasonal downward trend, with only non-ferrous metal prices slightly rebounding.

Since the 1960s, Japan has actively promoted an upgrade of its export structure toward technology-intensive industries. The proportion of capital equipment exports has increased significantly. On one hand, Japan signed multiple restriction agreements with the United States and increased direct investment in the U.S. to bypass trade barriers; on the other hand, it expanded exports to Asia.

Against the backdrop of fiscal expansion, China has used a monetary policy model of “bank balance sheet expansion + central bank non-expansion,” leading to a significant decline in long-term interest rates. However, the new challenge faced is that some banks are experiencing increased asset-liability duration mismatches, and their economic value changes are approaching the regulatory threshold of 15% of Tier 1 capital.