Bitcoin's true trump card in a depreciating dollar—Decoding the 2026 bottoming map with three key pieces of evidence

Many investors are fooled by the illusion of prices caused by the devaluation of the US dollar, staring at the BTC/USD chart on the screen, thinking it will take a long time to see the bottom. But if you look at it from a different perspective using gold as a measure, you’ll discover a hidden fact: Bitcoin’s true value relative to hard currencies has long entered a historic bottom zone. This article will restore the current crypto market’s real bottom through three dimensions: macro cycles, on-chain data, and miner performance.

Viewing the Price from a Different Angle—Inflation Illusion Caused by Dollar Depreciation

There is a misconception among investors about whether Bitcoin has already bottomed out. Many believe that Bitcoin hit a new all-time high in USD terms in the second half of 2025, and the recent few months of decline are not enough to constitute a full bear market, so the bottom should still be far away.

This judgment ignores a crucial fact: dollar depreciation. Over the past year or more, amid inflation in the dollar system, not only commodity prices have risen across the board, but hard assets like Bitcoin, gold, and silver have also surged simultaneously. In other words, the new high in the second half of 2025 is largely driven by liquidity pumped up by fiat currency devaluation, not a genuine increase in Bitcoin’s purchasing power.

When we strip away the noise of dollar depreciation and use the ultimate hard currency “gold” as a benchmark, the true market picture emerges: Bitcoin’s relative value to gold peaked already at the end of 2024. Since then, the price structure has completed a full 14-month decline model—completely aligned with three major historical retracement cycles (2013-2015, 2017-2019, 2021-2022).

From a momentum perspective, the RSI indicator has been pushed into an extremely low zone. In terms of time, the bear cycle has already run its course. Continuing to be bearish now essentially bets on the first failure of historical regularities, which is highly improbable in probability theory.

Re-measuring with Gold—The 14-Month Decline Cycle of Bitcoin’s Relative Value

Macro cycles provide the time dimension answer, but we also need to pinpoint the exact bottom in the spatial dimension.

Historical patterns show that each bear market bottom is accompanied by “long-term holders’ despair and capitulation.” What is happening now is precisely this process—but the final complete washout may still require one more panic impulse.

The key indicator measuring overall network profit and loss, the MVRV Z-Score, has plummeted into the “deep capitulation” zone, indicating that most circulating coins are in loss. Short-term holders’ psychological defenses have been broken, and even the traditionally stable long-term holders are starting to sell at breakeven points.

More critically, the “Realized Price” indicator—representing the average cost of all Bitcoin last moved on the network—is the true market average price line. Currently, this line is around $55,000. Historically, every major bottom has seen Bitcoin touch or briefly pierce this level to thoroughly wipe out the last leverage.

The current price of around $65,600 is already quite close to this ultimate bottom zone, and a bloodbath-like bottom is gradually being established.

Miner Capitulation Signal—When the Negative Sentiment Is Exhausted, That’s the Real Opportunity

If on-chain data is the battlefield of coin holdings, then the miners’ survival status is the health report of the entire ecosystem.

From a peak to over $60,000, the halving of the price has directly destroyed the survival logic of high-energy-consuming miners. The total network hash rate has already dropped by about 15%. The Hash Ribbons indicator, representing short- and long-term hash rate battles, has been in the “capitulation” zone for the past two months. Many small and medium miners are forced to sell their accumulated BTC to pay electricity bills—this passive selling pressure is the cruelest.

History shows that once these bottom-level forced sell-offs are digested by the market, and inefficient hash power is thoroughly washed out, it often marks the establishment of a major historical bottom.

At the same time, look at the Ethereum ecosystem: the price has fallen below $2,000, and at the developer conference, there’s no more talk of getting rich quick, MEME coins, or crazy airdrops—everyone is in silent winter. Without this depth of despair, the next real bull market cannot arrive. The negative sentiment is exhausted.

Pyramid-Style Staged Strategy—Smart Capital’s Left-Side Positioning for 2026

Based on evidence from macro cycles, on-chain data, and miner performance, the logic is very clear: the time cycle has arrived, momentum indicators are at extremes, speculative bubbles are squeezed dry, and miner selling pressure is nearing exhaustion.

Now is not the time to cut losses and exit, but the moment for smart capital to start greedily accumulating. However, this does not mean going all-in at once.

The bottom is a zone, and the market is very likely to test the patience of bulls through wide-range oscillations and downward probes, even creating false breakouts below previous lows to attract liquidity. Therefore, a strict pyramid-style staged accumulation strategy is necessary:

First Stage: Build the Base Position (30% of funds)

• Entry Range: $64,000 - $67,000
• Logic: Macro risk premiums have already appeared. To avoid missing the rebound, hold the core chips at this level. Buying in this zone is a low-risk game that wins time, not space.

Second Stage: Add on Psychological Key Level (30% of funds)

• Entry Range: $59,000 - $61,000
• Logic: Breaking below the $60,000 mark will trigger panic selling and negative sentiment. This tranche is prepared to absorb retail stop-losses and panic dumps.

Third Stage: Catch the Final Bloodbath (40% of funds)

• Entry Range: $53,000 - $56,000
• Logic: Reserved for black swan events or major shakeouts by big players.

When the false prosperity brought by dollar depreciation dissipates, and the market’s true bottom is confirmed, the patience of smart capital will yield the greatest returns. The bottoming opportunity in 2026 is gradually taking shape.