Wall Street Insights Breakfast FM-Radio | February 28, 2026

Good Morning Voice of Huajian

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Market Overview

U.S. January PPI reignites inflation concerns; UK private equity credit giant MFS bankruptcy sparks panic. U.S. stocks opened lower, with the S&P and Nasdaq narrowing losses but still declining. The S&P 500 closed down 0.4%, nearly 1% lower for the month, marking the largest monthly drop since March last year. The Dow fell over 1% intraday.

Nvidia dropped over 4%, continuing its soft post-earnings trend. Oracle and Apple both fell over 3%, while Netflix surged nearly 14%. After earnings, Coreweave plummeted over 20% during trading on Friday, Dell soared nearly 22%. The regional bank ETF in the S&P fell 5%. Credit card and payment providers like First Capital Financial and American Express declined at least 6%. Alternative asset managers also tumbled. Software stocks resumed their decline.

Risk aversion increased, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield falling 5.7 basis points below 4%, the first time since October last year. The dollar declined 0.12% on Friday, up 0.6% this month.

Bitcoin fell 3%, marking the fifth consecutive month of decline. Ethereum dropped over 5% on Friday, breaking below $2,000.

Spot gold rose 1.8%, approaching $5,300 at the close, marking the seventh consecutive month of gains. Silver surged over 6%, also up for the tenth month in a row, with a 10% monthly increase. Concerns over Middle East tensions intensified, WTI crude oil rose 2.88%, marking the second consecutive month of gains.

During Asian trading hours, the ChiNext index fell 1%, with collective adjustments in computing hardware. Rare metals surged to daily limit-ups, Hang Seng Index rose 1%, and the RMB fell below 6.85.

News Highlights

China

The Politburo of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting to discuss the draft outline of the 14th Five-Year Plan and government work report.

CSRC: Studying key measures for high-quality development of the capital market during the 14th Five-Year Plan, promoting two-way acceleration of foreign investment “bringing in” and “going out.”

The People’s Bank of China announced that from March 2, the forward foreign exchange risk reserve ratio will be lowered from 20% to 0%.

Zhongji Xuchuang’s net profit in 2025 is expected to grow by 108.81% year-on-year, driven by investments in computing infrastructure and high-speed optical modules.

Cambrian Technology achieved its first annual profit, with net profit of 2.06 billion yuan in 2025, a 4.5-fold increase in revenue.

Moore Thread’s 2025 revenue is projected to grow 243.37% YoY, with flagship GPU mass production narrowing losses by 36.7%.

Domestic GPU production accelerates; Muxi Co. expects a 44% loss reduction in 2025, with revenue up 121%.

Overseas

U.S. January core PPI hits one-year high, unexpectedly heating up, complicating Fed monetary policy.

The U.S. Navy’s largest aircraft carrier arrives in the Middle East; U.S. officials urge citizens to leave Israel quickly. China’s MFA advises Chinese citizens to evacuate Iran promptly. Trump states U.S.-Iran negotiations will continue, warns “sometimes force is necessary.”

The Pentagon demands “all authority,” Anthropic refuses, but Elon Musk’s xAI agrees. Trump orders federal agencies to cease using Anthropic products; Pentagon declares Anthropic a supply chain risk. Over 100 Google employees jointly petition to set red lines in U.S. military contracts, refusing to become “war machines.”

OpenAI completes $110 billion funding, valuation reaches $730 billion, with Amazon investing $50 billion.

No longer solely betting on Nvidia; Meta spends billions renting Google TPUs.

SpaceX considers submitting a secret IPO application as early as March, aiming to go public in June.

Musk makes another grand vision: Tesla will build a factory on the Moon in 20 years, and robots will make human work “optional” within ten years.

Replaying the subprime crisis? UK private equity credit giant MFS bankrupts, with Barclays and others involved; creditors warn of double pledges possibly causing a $1.3 billion shortfall.

Market Close

US and European stocks: S&P 500 down 0.43% at 6,878.88. Dow down 1.05% at 48,977.92. Nasdaq down 0.92% at 22,668.212. Europe’s STOXX 600 up 0.11% at 633.85.

A-shares: Shanghai Composite closed at 4,162.88, up 0.39%. Shenzhen Component down 0.06% at 14,495.09. ChiNext index down 1.04% at 3,310.30.

Bond Market: U.S. 10-year Treasury yield fell 6.66 basis points to 3.9375%, down 14.52 basis points this week, 29.80 basis points in February. The 2-year yield dropped 5.51 basis points to 3.3729%, down 10.31 basis points this week, 14.75 basis points in February.

Commodities: COMEX gold futures up 1.64% at $5,279.6/oz, up 11.27% in February. COMEX silver futures up 7.67% at $94.3/oz, up 19.28% in February. WTI April crude rose 2.78% to $67.02/barrel, up 3.52% in February. Brent April crude up 2.45% at $72.48/barrel, up 5.64% in February.

Detailed News

Global Highlights

China

The Politburo held a meeting to discuss the draft outline of the 14th Five-Year Plan and government work report. According to Xinhua, the focus is on continuing proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, strengthening reform measures and macro policy coordination. Emphasis on building a strong domestic market, cultivating new growth drivers, accelerating high-level technological independence, deepening reforms in key areas, expanding high-level opening-up, rural revitalization, new urbanization, and regional coordination. Greater efforts to improve people’s livelihoods, promote green transformation, and enhance risk prevention and security in key sectors. Strengthening government capacity and establishing correct performance views.

CSRC: Planning high-quality development measures for the 14th Five-Year Plan, promoting two-way opening of foreign institutions—“bringing in” and “going out.” The meeting emphasized improving service to the real economy, policy continuity, enhancing investor protection and corporate governance, facilitating cross-border investment, and supporting foreign institutions’ differentiated development.

The PBOC announced that from March 2, the forward foreign exchange risk reserve ratio will be lowered from 20% to 0%, aiming to reduce corporate hedging costs and support exchange rate risk management. This marks a significant adjustment after three and a half years, signaling a move towards neutral foreign exchange policies.

• Huachuang Securities analyst Zhang Yu suggests this move reflects the PBOC’s resolve to curb excessive RMB appreciation, aiming to lower forward FX costs (estimated reduction of about 493 pips) to balance market supply and demand. In the short term, RMB appreciation is unsustainable, but medium-term resilience supported by exports suggests a stable upward trend.

Zhongji Xuchuang’s 2025 net profit is expected to grow 108.81% YoY, driven by investments in computing infrastructure and high-speed optical modules. Revenue in 2025 is projected at 38.24 billion yuan, with net profit reaching 10.8 billion, doubling from previous year. Driven by global computing infrastructure build-out, demand for high-speed optical modules is exploding, with product optimization boosting profit margins well beyond revenue growth. The company maintains solid profitability, with core business in optical modules, leveraging scale and solutions to maintain industry leadership and rapidly expand assets.

Cambrian Technology achieved its first annual profit, with net profit of 2.06 billion yuan in 2025, a 4.5-fold increase in revenue. Revenue reached 6.497 billion yuan, up 453%; net profit was 2.059 billion yuan, reversing a loss of 452 million yuan last year, marking its first annual profit since listing. Non-recurring net profit was 1.77 billion yuan, indicating performance driven by core business. Benefiting from AI compute demand, product competitiveness has driven market expansion.

Moore Thread’s 2025 revenue is projected to grow 243.37% YoY, with flagship GPU mass production narrowing losses by 36.7%. Revenue about 1.506 billion yuan, up 243%; net loss approximately 1.024 billion yuan, narrower than last year’s loss of 1.618 billion yuan. Core product MTTS5000 intelligent computing cards achieved mass production, supporting trillion-parameter models, with performance comparable to international peers. With successful IPO on the STAR Market and asset scale doubling, the company accelerates domestic GPU commercialization and overcomes ecological challenges.

Domestic GPU production accelerates; Muxi Co. expects a 44% loss reduction in 2025, with revenue up 121%. Revenue in 2025 is 1.644 billion yuan, up 121.26%, mainly driven by GPU shipments. Net loss was 781 million yuan, narrower by 44.53%. Scale effects dilute fixed costs, and reduced share-based payments further cut losses. The company completed IPO on the STAR Market, with equity increasing over tenfold to 13.173 billion yuan, strengthening capital.

Overseas

U.S. January core PPI hits one-year high, unexpectedly heating up, complicating Fed policy. U.S. January PPI rose 0.5% MoM and 2.9% YoY; core PPI up 0.8% MoM and 3.6% YoY, significantly exceeding expectations. The fastest core PPI growth since March 2025. Service costs surged, with wholesale and retail trade profit margins jumping 2.5%. Energy-driven commodity prices declined, but core goods rose 0.7% MoM. The unexpected PPI may push up core PCE, dampening expectations for Fed rate cuts.

The U.S. Navy’s largest aircraft carrier arrives in the Middle East; U.S. officials urge Americans to leave Israel quickly. China’s MFA advises Chinese citizens to evacuate Iran promptly. Trump states negotiations with Iran will continue, warns “sometimes force is necessary.”

• The USS Ford arrives in Israeli waters, forming a dual carrier strike group with USS Lincoln; about 20 U.S. refueling aircraft have arrived in Israel. The U.S. embassy in Israel orders non-essential personnel and families to evacuate and advises U.S. citizens to leave Israel “as soon as possible.” China’s MFA reminds citizens to avoid Iran and evacuate if present.
• Trump expresses dissatisfaction with Iran negotiations, still hopes for resolution through talks, citing Iran’s failure to promise non-nuclear development, and warns of “risks of war.” Omani Foreign Minister meets U.S. Vice President, claiming unprecedented progress in U.S.-Iran talks. Iran’s military warns of “destructive” retaliation against provocations. Iraq and Iran foreign ministers discuss resolving differences through negotiations.

The Pentagon demands “all authority,” Anthropic refuses, but Musk’s xAI agrees. Trump orders federal agencies to stop using Anthropic products; Pentagon declares Anthropic a supply chain risk.

• The Pentagon demands Anthropic to authorize “all lawful uses” of Claude; Anthropic refuses over concerns about “mass surveillance” and “autonomous weapons,” stating “cannot in good conscience agree.” Notably, in simulated war games, top models recommend nuclear weapons 95% of the time. Trump claims Anthropic is trying to force the DoD to follow their terms rather than the Constitution, giving federal agencies a six-month transition period.
• Over 100 Google employees jointly petition to set red lines in U.S. military contracts, refusing to become “war machines.”

OpenAI completes $110 billion funding, valuation reaches $730 billion, with Amazon investing $50 billion. Both sides agree on strategic cooperation, including joint development of runtime environments, exclusive distribution of OpenAI Frontier on AWS, and procurement of 2 GW Trainium compute and custom models. SoftBank and Nvidia each invest $30 billion.

No longer solely betting on Nvidia; Meta spends billions renting Google TPUs. Reports indicate Meta has signed multi-year agreements to rent Google TPUs for AI training, not just inference, shifting from “heavy reliance on Nvidia” to “multiple suppliers.” Google also plans to establish a TPU leasing joint venture with investors to turn TPU into a new multi-billion dollar business.

SpaceX considers submitting a secret IPO application as early as March, aiming to go public in June. According to Bloomberg, the valuation could exceed $1.75 trillion. In February, SpaceX acquired AI startup xAI; post-merger valuation reached $1.25 trillion.

Musk makes another grand vision: Tesla will build a factory on the Moon in 20 years, and robots will make human work “optional” within ten years. In an interview, Musk states Tesla’s FSD is expected to enter Europe in March, and internal combustion cars will become history; 2023 is a “big year” for Tesla’s capacity and new products, including mass production of Cybertrucks by year-end; in 20 years, Tesla will have a factory on the Moon, and giant robots will make human labor “optional” within a decade.

Replaying the subprime crisis? UK private equity credit giant MFS bankrupts, with Barclays and others involved; creditors warn of double pledges possibly causing a $1.3 billion shortfall. MFS, a UK bridging loan firm, collapses suddenly amid allegations of fraud and asset double pledging, exposing over £2 billion in risk exposure for Barclays, Jefferies, Apollo, and others. The firm operated with high leverage, accused of misappropriating hundreds of millions of pounds; founder’s whereabouts unknown. This sparks deep Wall Street concerns about private credit fragility, with Dimon warning of a “replay” of 2008 signs. Creditors believe double pledges could cause over £1 billion of debt to have unexplained gaps exceeding 80%.

“Rats in the walls,” private credit issues combined with AI worries cause bank stocks to plunge 6%. The U.S. banking sector experiences its worst decline this year, with the KBW bank index dropping as much as 6% intraday, the largest single-day drop since April last year. Private credit risks erupt; several funds face liquidity issues, UK mortgage lenders collapse, spreading fears. Goldman Sachs and Zions Bancorp fall nearly 8%, Apollo drops 9%.

Research Highlights

Is the future of AI predicted by Marx? When AI achieves full automation, “capital” will equal “labor,” and the value of labor will approach zero, threatening the foundations of classical economics. Deutsche Bank explores two possible outcomes: if AI fully replaces humans, wealth will concentrate, many goods will be unaffordable, leading to deflation, low interest rates, high profits but volatile stock markets; if AI remains a tool, employment and demand can recover, with inflation, interest rates, and stocks rising moderately.

“The Darwin Moment” arrives! Analysts warn some PE firms face extinction. The private equity industry is in trouble: Bain reports that in 2025, only 14% of investor allocations will be available, a post-2008 low, with about $3.8 trillion in assets awaiting exit. Fundraising is concentrated among top firms; small and mid-sized funds struggle. Some PE partners warn of “Darwinian淘汰,” with some managers quietly shutting down.

Max from Oak Tree Capital: AI is replacing rather than assisting labor; investors should neither fully allocate nor completely exit. His latest memo states AI has evolved into “autonomous intelligent agents” capable of replacing labor substantively. In investing, AI’s data processing outperforms humans, but qualitative and intuitive judgments remain weak. He emphasizes the reality of this technological revolution and recommends “selective targeting and moderate holdings.”

Dollar’s twilight, gold’s return—under new geopolitical order, three major themes emerge in A-shares. CICC reports that the “three pillars” of the dollar are cracking, with gold returning as the ultimate store of value. A-shares’ valuation logic shifts to a “safe, resilient, controllable” new paradigm, with three main themes: resource hard currencies (gold and key minerals) hedge credit risks; core technology (AI, semiconductors, commercial aerospace) build productivity engines; security assets (military, information innovation, critical infrastructure) benefit from “national subscription” demand.

Domestic Macro

U.S. trade representative’s comments on China tariffs fluctuate; experts analyze core reasons. Global Times reports that U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai’s stance on China tariffs has been inconsistent, shifting from promoting “301 investigations” to maintaining tariffs unchanged. Experts suggest this inconsistency stems from the contradiction between U.S. “containment” and “dependence” on China, as well as long-term tug-of-war between hawks and moderates in U.S. politics.

“Shanghai Seven Policies” show initial effects: intermediary viewings double, buyers make offers on the same day. According to The Paper, two days after the “Shanghai Seven” policies were implemented, the market quickly heated up: on February 25, second-hand housing viewings surged 122% week-on-week, new housing viewings up 106%, online inquiries increased 81% daily, and new housing inquiries up 156%. Feedback indicates increased buyer willingness, with some hesitant sellers raising asking prices, signaling a “small spring” revival.

Domestic Companies

Semmicro’s 2025 revenue hits a record 12.3 billion yuan, up 30.69%, with new growth in film equipment. Revenue in 2025 is about 12.385 billion yuan, up 36.62%. Etching equipment remains core; sales near 10 billion yuan. Film equipment growth exceeds 224%, becoming a second growth driver. R&D investment exceeds 3.7 billion yuan, up over 52%. Despite short-term profit pressure, significant technological breakthroughs in atomic-level etching and advanced process equipment boost domestic substitution prospects.

AI-driven performance: Lianchuang Technology’s 2025 net profit reaches 2.236 billion yuan, nearly 90% increase excluding share-based payments. Revenue is 5.456 billion yuan, up 50%; net profit is 2.236 billion, up 58%. AI demand boosts core interconnect chip sales, with revenue of 5.139 billion and gross margin of 65.6%. After deducting share-based payments, actual net profit is 2.647 billion, an 81% increase.

Mobile phones to see multiple price hikes: possibly more than one round, with new models at least 1,000 yuan more expensive! Netizens say they can’t afford to upgrade; some plan to just replace batteries. Driven by soaring storage chip costs, China’s mobile industry will see a full price increase in March, with new models at least 1,000 yuan higher, and average prices rising 15-25%. This is the largest collective price hike in five years, heavily impacting mid- and low-end models. On the same day, Meizu announced halting in-house hardware development and shifting fully to AI.

ByteDance’s new algorithm cuts about one-third of computing power. ByteDance and Beihang University propose SAGE-RL, targeting “overthinking” in large models. The model still generates redundant tokens after producing correct answers, wasting compute. Findings show models have “self-awareness,” but sampling strategies prevent timely stopping. SAGE explores step-by-step to let models output stop signals at appropriate times, reducing inference tokens by about 1/3 while maintaining accuracy, achieving “cost reduction and efficiency increase.”

Overseas Macro

AI and geopolitical clouds cast shadows; rapid capital fleeing U.S. stocks into gold and U.S. bonds for safety. Due to concerns over AI disruption and geopolitical tensions, systemic funds are withdrawing massively from U.S. equities; quant funds have zero stock holdings. Funds flow into safe assets, pushing U.S. bonds to their best performance in a year, with gold surpassing $5,000. Defensive sentiment dominates as markets await key data.

Turning to bonds? Global investment-grade bond spreads widen nearly 4 basis points amid default worries in the software sector. Under AI disruption fears and private credit risks, global investment-grade bond yields have widened by nearly 4 basis points this week, the largest weekly move since November last year. UBS warns that if AI causes “aggressive” shocks to companies, private credit default rates could rise to 15%, with software sector defaults reaching double digits.

Tokyo CPI falls below 2% for the first time in 15 months, but the Bank of Japan’s rate hike path remains unchanged. Tokyo February core CPI drops to 1.8%, below 2% for the first time since October 2024, influenced by energy subsidies. Excluding energy, inflation rises to 2.5%, with steady service price increases, indicating underlying pressures persist. Combining retail and industrial data, analysts believe this technical cooling does not alter the BOJ’s rate hike trajectory; further tightening in April remains likely.

Overseas Companies

Nvidia plunges overnight amid institutional sell-offs; retail investors buy heavily? Nvidia’s stock swings from +5% to -5%, causing sharp tech sector volatility. The main sellers are institutions: Goldman Sachs data shows funds are leaning toward selling, with crowded long positions intensifying the sell-off. Meanwhile, retail investors, in the largest contrarian buy since 2012, bought $360 million net in the first 80 minutes of trading, exceeding the previous day’s total.

CoreWeave earnings call: CEO states AI compute demand is “ruthless and endless,” with $66.8 billion in orders, expecting stable long-term profit margins around 25%. Q1 revenue guidance is $1.9–2.0 billion, below analyst expectations of $2.29 billion. CFO explains that early costs in data center leasing, power, and depreciation precede revenue recognition; normalizing operations could yield long-term margins of 25–30%. Management emphasizes sustained AI compute demand, with customer contracts extending to an average of five years. The company’s self-developed cloud software has Nvidia ecosystem certification, with broad potential for high-margin software revenue.

Salesforce: AI disruption accelerates, SaaS leader becomes “discarded”? Analysts note that Salesforce’s revenue growth is “watered down,” with core business slowing after excluding acquisitions. AI flagship product Agentforce accounts for less than 2%, and gross margins are under pressure amid rising expenses. GAAP profit increased only 3% YoY, well below expectations. The only bright spot is a $50 billion buyback plan, but the “AI disrupting SaaS” narrative clouds the outlook, with upward momentum unclear.

Upcoming Key Events

National Bureau of Statistics releases 2025 economic and social development report.

Hong Kong Q4 GDP data.

Berkshire Hathaway earnings.

Traditional gold product price adjustments.

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