On the New Long March

The New Long March — Cui Jian[Taogu Ba]
Think what you do, do what you think — is a rifle and Xiaomi
Many truths are often said — like big guns and bombers
How to say, how to do — that’s truly oneself
How to sing, how to sing — only then can the heart be proud

Currently, the market environment is called by some the AI quantitative market, and by others the structural market. The name isn’t important. We can see small-cap stocks clustering in quant strategies, and a careless hit can be a big blow. Mid-cap institutions also don’t do much; when they sell, even nine oxen can’t hold back the decline. Not only are retail investors finding it hard to make money, but top investors or small funds also struggle. Those once-famous top-tier investors may not replicate their glory today. On this new Long March, a new generation of talented people may emerge. We must keep improving and refining ourselves. Learning is endless. Today, I won’t discuss techniques, only principles. Welcome to share and interact in the comments!

First, the significance of review: personal review serves trading, not to attract attention or generate traffic, but to make decisive judgments when entering and exiting trades. I can write extensively, and my writing skills are decent, but that’s unnecessary now.

1. Extract useful market information from the daily charts to reinforce the pattern system. Those with intent can absorb useful insights, form muscle memory, and be one step ahead during trading. I’ve said before, the essence of stock price movement is — capital momentum. The bidding process determines 70% of the day’s trend, plus the first five minutes of opening decide 90%, leaving only 10% for surprises or black swans. After all, the stock market is fundamentally a game of probabilities.
2. Building a ladder of continuous limit-up stocks: the previous emotional cycle strategies are gradually fading. Big caps and small caps often dance together, but regardless, unexpected and expectation gaps are unavoidable. Even so-called leaders need market validation before strengthening. Simple strategies include: one-word limit-up, volume-reduction limit-up, solid limit-up, volume-expansion limit-up, and industry chain plays, each corresponding to different entry postures.
   • Analyze how the limit-up stocks are selected, where winners succeed, and where losers fail.
   • Define target stocks with expectations, and how they can advance the next day.
   • When encountering a major upward cycle, define key nodes. During the chaotic volume-reduction phase, there’s a “hammer” node. Quantitative models don’t recognize institutions or individual investors; top investors aren’t active, so it’s a dilemma.
3. Sector themes: the only sustainable principle is the scale of limit-ups. The only effective follow-up is on the day of the first explosion and the second rebound. Other times are subjective guesses. Recognized quantitative institutions can identify capital inflows and exits faster. Good stocks are often hard to buy; if bought, pray for protection — otherwise, it’s a trap. Over-discussing this can mislead. Many people follow multiple analysts daily and have deep experiences with this; I’ll just mention it briefly.
4. Why not list a bunch of first-limit-up stocks? In A-shares, 90% of first-limit-up stocks are garbage, and 90% of retail investors buy these trash stocks — a harsh but fair truth. First-limit-up stocks are mostly controlled by quantitative models. Those with expectations the next day are likely to be chosen by consensus funds to advance. How far they go is uncertain. The best entry point is at the first or second limit-up. Especially small caps; third-tier stocks test understanding, and beyond that, risks become uncontrollable — the glorious era of top investors is gone.
5. The sentiment strength indicator can’t fully reflect the market’s short-term true emotions. Quantitative institutions drive public sentiment. Short-term emotions are dominated by short-term funds, combined with a large amount of follow-the-leader capital. During pullbacks and peaks, it’s important to differentiate. When rising, not all stocks rise; during declines, chaos ensues.
6. Focus in trading: avoid only thinking about leading stocks or subjective high viewpoints. Leaders must also be validated by the market’s expectations. The bigger the hope, the more likely to be disappointed. Once a stock is designated as a leader, its potential is limited. Whether you can get in early depends on the pattern system. Previously, it was about mastering a skill to perfection; now, it’s about applying that skill to the fullest. Don’t ignore others’ ways of making money; don’t seek many trades, but aim for fast, accurate, and stable entries.
   • First, handle existing positions: define their status and influence. If the market is weak or the momentum is hindered, consider halving or closing positions to make holdings comfortable, reduce early morning effort, and free energy for new trades.
   • For continuous limit-up stocks: if no clear signal is given, decisively abandon. If yes, prioritize entry. Focus on core stocks with inherent aura; don’t need to watch every one.
   • For first-limit-up stocks: pre-select a few familiar and aesthetically acceptable stocks. Don’t rely solely on subjective judgment. Use combined bidding and volume models, such as Zhongtung Equipment, Jinzengda, Ganneng Power, Beijing Kerei, etc. These stocks test understanding and speed. On Fridays, I tried identifying signals before 9:30 am at home; otherwise, late reactions are risky.
7. Rebound pattern: institutional trend-based capital structures make this approach increasingly popular. The strong support and oversold conditions are pre-identified for observation. Recent examples include Baichuan Shares, Hengdian Films, Hang Electric, Zhongtung Equipment. I’ve also compiled data from the past six months, and it’s time to assign a specific position.

Tea-picking craftsmanship: for pre-dawn tea, only select the tenderest, thinnest buds, and full leaves. After finishing, move to the next tea tree, then the next season. Stock selection is similar: identify five-in-one criteria of capital energy—emotion, energy, guidance, bidding, intraday, and limit-up signals—fusing into high-probability models. If they meet, act. Keep it simple and replicable. The importance of logical attributes is diminishing; when stocks rise too much, great scholars will debate. When a stock hits a limit, exit without attachment.
This article is written for myself and for those who happen to read it with intention. Trading may not be complicated in the end. Simple things can be repeated!