The first year of the Trump administration: the harsh reality of the labor market shown by employment statistics

As President Trump takes the helm, U.S. employment data remains a key focus. The latest employment report to be released this week will reveal the true state of the labor market over the past year and is expected to intensify discussions about the administration’s economic policies.

Delayed January Data Finally to Be Released

The January employment report, postponed due to the government shutdown, is scheduled to be released at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time on Wednesday. Along with this, significant revisions to the monthly statistics for the past year will be announced.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) conducts an annual review each January to incorporate the latest data from all states. Last year’s revision estimated that total employment would decrease by over 900,000 between March 2024 and March 2025. The final adjusted figures for this period will highlight just how challenging the U.S. labor market has been.

Expected January Job Gains and Unemployment Rate

Many experts predict that January’s job gains will be around 55,000, with the unemployment rate remaining steady at 4.4%. If accurate, this would mean four consecutive months of monthly job growth below 60,000. In October, an unusual situation occurred where a large number of federal employees left their jobs, leading to a real decrease in payrolls.

Trump Administration’s Prepared Explanations and Background

White House officials acknowledge that the upcoming revisions may highlight the labor market’s weakness dating back to the administration’s second term.

Peter Navarro, the White House trade advisor, stated in an interview with Fox Business on Tuesday, “The employment figures to be released tomorrow will need to significantly downwardly revise expectations for monthly job gains.” Navarro claims that stricter immigration enforcement and deportation measures under the current administration have reduced the U.S. workforce and suppressed monthly job growth.

On the same day, the White House released a memo titled “Don’t Panic. We Are Winning — And Not Slowing Down,” aiming to preemptively counter any negative interpretations of the upcoming data.

Challenges and Complex Backgrounds in Employment Data

Understanding the labor market involves many challenges. The reality of informal immigrant workers is difficult to gauge, as many receive wages off the books, which are not reflected in official salary statistics.

Looking at the entire 2025 period, the U.S. economy has created 584,000 jobs, the slowest since 2003 outside of recession periods, and the weakest since the pandemic in 2020.

Kevin Hassett, chairman of the National Economic Council (NEC), told CNBC on Monday, “We expect a modest increase in employment consistent with current GDP growth.” He added, “Slowing population growth and rapid productivity gains mean that even fewer jobs than usual may not be a concern.”

Federal Reserve Board Member Warnings on Labor Market Reality

Federal Reserve Board member Christopher Waller offered a more candid view at the end of January. He stated, “The labor market remains weak, and wage growth in 2025 has been very modest.”

Waller provided specific figures, noting, “While the average annual employment increase over the past decade was about 1.9 million, in 2025 it was just under 600,000.” He further predicted that future revisions could show “virtually zero growth in wage employment in 2025.” Waller concluded with a warning: “This is far from a healthy labor market.”

The differing perspectives between the Trump administration and economic experts on the labor market suggest that this week’s employment data will add new insights to the ongoing debate.