The Impact of US and Israel Attacks on Iran on the Global Economy (Beneficial Industries)

According to the Iranian Red Crescent Society, on the evening of the 28th local time, the US and Israel's attacks on Iran have resulted in 201 deaths and 747 injuries. Iran has been attacked in 24 provinces nationwide. The likelihood of a full-scale conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran has greatly increased.
Setting aside politics, let's look at its impact on the global economy. First, the conflict has a positive effect on safe-haven assets, the energy industry, shipping, and the military industry.
1. Safe-Haven Assets

Core Logic: Escalation of geopolitical conflict triggers market panic, causing funds to shift from risk assets to safe-haven assets.
Beneficial Assets:
Gold: As a traditional safe-haven asset, its price usually surges due to increased demand for safety.
US Dollar and US Treasuries: Global capital flows into USD and US debt markets seeking safety, strengthening the dollar and raising US Treasury prices.
Swiss Franc and Japanese Yen: These currencies are also considered important safe-haven currencies and tend to be in demand during tense situations.

2. Energy Industry

Core Logic: Iran is a major global oil producer and exporter. The conflict directly affects its production capacity and exports, while threatening the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global energy transportation route.
Specific Impacts:
Crude Oil Prices: Expectations of supply disruptions will directly push up international oil prices, with Brent and WTI crude potentially experiencing sharp fluctuations.
Related Companies: Upstream oil and gas exploration and extraction companies will benefit from rising oil prices, while downstream refining, aviation, and other oil-sensitive industries will face increased costs.

3. Shipping Industry

Core Logic: The Strait of Hormuz accounts for about 15% of global oil and large quantities of liquefied natural gas transportation. Tensions will lead to increased shipping risks and costs.
Specific Impacts:
Freight and Insurance Costs: Insurance rates for tankers and cargo ships will rise significantly, and longer routes may be chosen to avoid risks, increasing overall transportation costs.
Shipping Companies: Operators with large oil tankers may benefit from higher freight rates but also face risks of route disruptions and geopolitical tensions.

4. Military Industry

Core Logic: Escalation of regional conflicts will prompt affected countries to increase defense budgets and accelerate procurement and modernization of weapons and equipment.
Specific Impacts:
Order Growth: Defense companies are expected to see a significant increase in orders for missiles, fighter jets, drones, and other equipment.
Industry Chain: From upstream core components to downstream complete machine manufacturing, the entire military industrial chain will experience increased activity.