Mysterious Account Precisely Bets on Iran Strikes, Trump Camp Faces "Insider Trading" Allegations

ChainCatcher reports that, according to Jintou, last weekend, due to the closure of traditional financial markets worldwide, a large influx of funds flowed into prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi, as well as decentralized exchanges like Hyperliquid. Investors attempted to hedge risks or speculate on the potential consequences of the US and Israel’s attacks on Iran through these platforms. However, this capital frenzy quickly turned into a public opinion storm.

Last Saturday, a surge of skepticism emerged on social platform X, accusing some insiders of profiting from advance knowledge of military strikes in prediction markets. In response to the criticism, a White House spokesperson defended to the media, saying, “The only special interest guiding the Trump administration’s decisions is the greatest interest of the American people.” In fact, efforts to crack down on insider betting related to international conflicts have already begun in some regions worldwide.

In response to the accusations, Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour stated that all fees generated from user participation in the controversial markets would be refunded, and positions established before Qasem Soleimani’s death would be forcibly settled at the last trading price. However, this “forced liquidation” decision did not quell the controversy; instead, many users complained on social platforms that they felt betrayed by the platform.