Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei was killed in a joint US-Israeli military operation, prompting Iran to block the Strait of Hormuz. This has disrupted 20% of global oil supplies, pushing geopolitical risks to the highest level since the end of the Cold War. However, the performance of traditional safe-haven assets has completely defied textbook logic: gold surged to a record high of $5,278 before hesitating, the US dollar index fell back to 97.64 instead of rising, and the 10-year US Treasury yield declined to 3.97%, reflecting more economic concerns than sovereign confidence. Only crude oil experienced a violent rally driven by supply fears. Meanwhile, Bitcoin underwent a dramatic V-shaped reversal—from a plunge to $63,000 and over 150,000 liquidations, to a rapid rebound surpassing $67,800, fully recouping its losses. Behind this extreme divergence are three major unseen macroeconomic restructuring logic: First, the strategic premium of "de-sovereignization" assets is emerging. As the US normalizes using the dollar and SWIFT system as tools of sanctions, Bitcoin—an "stateless" asset issued by no country and not relying on any single sovereignty—has become a true safe haven in an era of geopolitical fragmentation. Second, global liquidity expectations have experienced a V-shaped reversal. War inevitably leads to higher fiscal spending and lower economic efficiency, with markets anticipating more monetary easing over the next 18 months. Bitcoin, as the most sensitive asset to "asset inflation," has preemptively reflected this expectation. Third, the shift in institutional thinking is reshaping Bitcoin's asset positioning. From liquidity crunches during sharp declines, to asynchronous behavior compared to gold during rebounds, and supported by structural buying from ETFs, Bitcoin is undergoing a narrative reconstruction from "risk asset" to "digital gold." On-chain data shows that since early 2026, over 400,000 Bitcoins have been accumulated by whales in the $60,000 to $70,000 range. The structural divergence between large holders accumulating and retail investors exiting lays the foundation for subsequent gains. However, risks remain: escalation of the conflict could trigger a new round of "cash is king" liquidity crunch; regulatory developments like the US CLARITY Act could bring unexpected negative news; and a systemic decline in US stocks could drag Bitcoin's independent performance down. In the coming weeks, key variables will include the evolution of Iran's political situation, the status of passage through the Strait of Hormuz, and Federal Reserve policy signals. In this redefinition of the new world's value anchors, investors need not blindly chase gains or sell in panic, but rather understand the profound shifts in macro logic.

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