#深度创作营 The escalation of US-Iran conflict | Wall Street fully hedges risks, crypto market volatility intensifies

The US-Iran situation has escalated from negotiation standoffs to direct military confrontation. Wall Street has entered full risk-avoidance mode, with global funds flooding into gold, US Treasuries, and the US dollar. Risk assets are under collective pressure, with the crypto market bearing the brunt.

1. Situation Overview

The US and Israel launched airstrikes targeting Iran's core objectives. Iran vowed a strong response and threatened to block the Strait of Hormuz. Middle Eastern geopolitical risks have sharply increased. Negotiations are still ongoing, but conflict has already begun, and uncertainty has peaked.

2. Wall Street Hedging and Crypto Market Linkage

- Traditional Markets: Gold surpassing $5400, crude oil soaring, US stock futures plunging, funds abandoning high-risk assets.

- Crypto Response: Bitcoin sharply dropped to $63,216, Ethereum also fell significantly, and altcoins generally suffered heavy losses; approximately $460 million in liquidations occurred across the network in 24 hours, with over 140,000 traders forced to liquidate.

3. Core Impact Logic

1. Risk Preference Suppression: Amid geopolitical crises, institutions prioritize selling high-volatility crypto assets. The short-term myth of Bitcoin as "digital gold" hedging has failed.

2. Hashrate Impact: Iran is a major global mining hub. The conflict has led to a contraction in mining power, intensifying market panic.

3. Liquidity Tightening: Wall Street's risk-off and deleveraging measures cause capital to flow out of the crypto space, amplifying volatility.

4. Gold-backed Tokens Strengthen Against the Trend: Gold tokens like PAXG and XAUT surged, as funds use crypto channels to embrace the safe-haven properties of physical assets.

4. Market Outlook

- Short-term: If the conflict persists without cooling down, expect high volatility and weak rebounds in the crypto market, with a risk of further declines.

- Medium-term: Watch whether the situation escalates further, oil prices continue to rise, and how these factors influence Federal Reserve policies and global liquidity.

- Long-term: If sanctions become prolonged, the cross-border circulation value of crypto assets will regain attention.

5. Operational Reminders

Geopolitical black swan events dominate. Strictly control leverage, reduce positions, and avoid blindly bottom-fishing. Keep a close eye on developments; if key support levels break, adopt a cautious stance. Hedging remains paramount.