Slight Increase in Bitcoin: Christmas Rally Prediction and Global Liquidity Shift

During the 2024 Thanksgiving season, the entire crypto community focused on one question: Will Bitcoin return to the $90,000 milestone and have a traditional Christmas rally? The hidden answer depends not only on US market dynamics but also on broader global monetary shifts that are beginning to reflect in the economies of three major regions—America, Japan, and the United Kingdom.

Now in 2026, looking back at the past year and a half, we can see how those signals have become reality or not. Bitcoin, which only reached $66.6K from the target of $90K, shows a more complex path than originally predicted by the market.

The Beige Book and Changing Federal Reserve Policy Direction

The key to understanding the momentum of 2024 is the “Beige Book”—an economic report that usually doesn’t attract international attention. In late November 2024, the Dallas Fed officially released a comprehensive economic survey containing grassroots data from 12 regions across America.

Due to the government shutdown at that time, this report provided a rare window into actual economic conditions. The findings were not optimistic: no meaningful economic growth, rising business costs, and a labor market showing signs of weakness—not a crisis, but no longer the overheating economy that the Federal Reserve loudly warned about last year.

This data triggered dramatic repricing in the futures market. The probability of a rate cut in December increased from 20% a week earlier to 86%, according to Polymarket data. For the market, this was a clear signal: the era of aggressive tightening is coming to an end.

Regional Divergence: Distributed Economic Fatigue

The real story isn’t just a simple national picture but the different temperatures of economic activity across regions:

Northeast (Boston): Steady economic activity, housing market slightly recovering, but wage growth and consumer spending remain moderate. The job market is stable, and price pressures are manageable.

Mid-Atlantic (New York, Philadelphia): Here, cooling is more evident. Economic activity has declined, major employers are downsizing, and employment has slightly shrunk. Retail is weak except in the high-end segment. Consumer confidence has shifted from cautious optimism.

South (Atlanta, Richmond): Relatively stable, but without clear growth drivers. Manufacturing remains steady, retail growth has slowed, and the real estate market shows signs of stabilization.

Midwest (St. Louis, Cleveland): The deepest concerns are here. The government shutdown went beyond just federal workers—impacting local consumption, airport operations, and business orders. The multiplier effect showed how severe the interconnectedness of the modern economy is.

This distribution of fatigue has transformed internal policy debates at the Federal Reserve. It’s no longer just a “hawkish vs dovish” argument but a pragmatic assessment that continued high rates could cause unnecessary economic damage.

Global Monetary Expansion: Japan and UK Shock

While the Federal Reserve is beginning to soften, other major economies are moving in the opposite direction—printing money to support growth.

Japan’s 11.5 Trillion Yen Gamble

In late November 2024, the new Japanese administration announced a stimulus package of at least 11.5 trillion yen ($73.5 billion). This doubled expectations and reflected anxiety about economic stagnation. Even record-high tax revenues of 80.7 trillion yen haven’t alleviated concerns about long-term fiscal sustainability.

The immediate effect was a continued decline in the yen, with Japanese government bond yields reaching 20-year highs. The spillover was significant—Asian capital seeking higher yields began exploring alternative assets, including crypto.

United Kingdom’s Fiscal Trap

The situation in the UK is even more dire. The latest budget drew widespread criticism in London’s financial circles. According to the Institute for Fiscal Studies, the fiscal structure is essentially “spend now, pay later”—spending immediately, with tax increases delayed for the next administration.

The personal income tax freeze will bring £12.7 billion to the Treasury, but this is only a partial solution to larger problems. The Office for Budget Responsibility warned that a quarter of the British workforce will face a 40% marginal tax rate. From 2026 onward, additional property taxes, dividend tax increases, and pension relief restrictions will be implemented.

The total debt accumulated by the UK government in the past seven months is £117 billion—almost equal to the rescue package during the 2008 financial crisis. But without an actual crisis, this signals structural problems that are not easily solved by tax hikes.

The Financial Times used the word “brutal” to emphasize that repeated tax increases in a stagnant economy are doomed to fail. The end result will likely be currency depreciation—the pound acting as an “escape valve” where market pressure manifests.

The Slightly Growing Crypto Narrative

These signals—a shift in Federal Reserve policy, Japanese monetary expansion, UK fiscal distress—have created an environment where hard assets, especially Bitcoin, are becoming increasingly relevant.

Crypto market correlation with US equities is about 0.8, so Bitcoin moves somewhat in tandem. However, seasonal dynamics differ. The traditional “Santa Claus rally,” with an 80% success rate over the past 73 years in stocks, often begins in late November and lasts until early January.

Low trading volume during the holiday period means even small buying pressure can move prices out of consolidation zones. In 2024, market sentiment is stable enough for such a rally, especially given the dovish pivot of central banks.

On-Chain Signals and Institutional Positioning

On-chain data shows accumulation patterns consistent with seasonal buying. Whale wallets are slightly accumulating, and retail capitulation isn’t visible at usual extremes. This suggests a potential setup for a “short-term trend market” as mentioned by crypto analysts.

Ethereum, typically seen as a high-beta small-cap proxy, is expected to outperform in risk-on environments. If the “Santa rally” occurs, altcoins are expected to lead.

Retrospective: 2024 Predictions vs 2026 Reality

Looking back from March 2026, the actual price path did not match the optimistic Christmas rally scenario. Bitcoin peaked in the $90K–$95K range in early 2025 but did not stay there. Subsequent consolidation and correction brought it down to $66.6K at present.

The lesson is that seasonal patterns, while statistically valid, do not guarantee against macro headwinds. Other factors—regulatory uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, institutional rebalancing—still override traditional seasonality.

However, the fundamental narrative of expanding global liquidity and currency weakness became even more evident in 2025. Japan’s stimulus resulted in sustained yen weakness. The UK fiscal situation shifted from “concerning” to “crisis-like” as stagnation persisted. Despite hawkish rhetoric in 2025, the Federal Reserve ultimately cut rates by 150 basis points over the year.

The Next Cycle: Christmas or a Dark Christmas?

The question asked in 2024—“A Christmas or a Dark Christmas is coming?”—has become more nuanced. It’s not a binary outcome but a spectrum.

For Bitcoin, the normalization of volatility suggests the market has transitioned from “crisis fear” to “macro uncertainty.” Structural tailwinds—central bank liquidity, currency depreciation, regulatory clarity—remain. But short-term dynamics depend more on quarterly institutional flows and regulatory developments.

The Christmas rally narrative prominent in 2024 has become less relevant in the more mature markets of 2025–2026. Seasonal effects persist but are overwhelmed by larger macro cycles and policy shifts.

The truly relevant question for long-term holders is: As the global monetary experiment in Japan, the UK, and elsewhere continues, and as wage earners and asset-less groups are pushed toward economic precarity, will Bitcoin remain a marginal growth asset in market penetration? Or will it become a significant percentage of diversified portfolios?

The likely answer is somewhere in between—adoption is gradually increasing, prices are steady, but not the exponential moonshot that more aggressive bulls expect. Christmas rallies will come and go, but the real bull market will depend on when the market fully embraces the implications of structural monetary expansion and currency weakness.