Today’s Market Overview

The short squeeze scenario from yesterday did not occur, so let’s take a look at today...
Figure 1: Market liquidity. Currently, aggregated CVD is still in a selling and distribution phase...
Binance is the most aggressive seller, with CVD at -2000.
Although Coinbase showed a slight rebound during European trading hours, based on experience, it’s likely that in about 1-2 hours, the pattern will be more relevant for the US stock market opening.
Figure 2: After yesterday’s OI rally, we will monitor OI levels over the next couple of days. Waiting for OI to reset and stabilize will signal the end of this wave and the beginning of the next. Currently, bulls and bears are nearly balanced. The recent rebound was driven by aggressive short covering.
Figure 3: From the order book, the thin orders around 75-77k yesterday have been filled. Supply above remains ample, and after breaking below 74k, new grid orders have been placed.
With funding rates returning to neutral, the scenario of a big squeeze triggered by a spike has gradually diminished. Returning to normal market dynamics.
Currently, 74k remains a resistance zone. To push higher, the US stock market ETF needs to continue gaining momentum (it saw inflows of nearly 500 million yesterday).
Today, watch Coinbase’s price action during the hour before the market opens.
Below, the interest zone for futures funding remains around 70-71k, which aligns with the logic of breaking and retesting 70k.
Figure 4: Combining these factors, the current CVD and OI conditions do not support me chasing longs near 73k. It’s better to continue looking for lower entries.
Below, 71k~71.5k is the previous VWAP gap combined with yesterday’s POC and the first order level for spot at 71k. If bulls remain strong today, the most they might retest is around here before pushing higher.
If the US stock market opens and spot continues to sell off, 70k above should serve as a solid support. These are the two low buy zones to watch today.
High short-term uncertainty exists today. Aggressive traders might consider a SFP above 74k, which presents potential opportunities.
However, if ETFs continue to buy aggressively at open, there will be no clear reference point above. The decision will depend on the actual market average price (TMP), which is currently far at 78.5k.