At the beginning of this year, the sentiment in global financial markets was actually quite warm.

Although the Federal Reserve itself appeared quite restrained at its final meeting late last year, hinting that it might only symbolically cut rates once throughout the year, Wall Street obviously had its own analytical framework. Established institutions like Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and Bank of America almost unanimously gave more "aggressive" answers: at least two rate cuts. Citigroup and some Chinese brokers were even more bullish, betting on three cuts.

Besides economic data, analysts' consensus also stemmed from political factors: the U.S. midterm elections in November.

For those in power, votes are life, and to get votes, you need to heat up the economy. Interest rates are the most direct thermostat, but monetary policy takes time to take effect after implementation. Working out the timeline, if the Trump administration wanted to see results by November, the Federal Reserve would have to complete significant rate cuts before October.

So at that time, all major institutions' forecasts placed rate cuts on a timetable for the first half of the year: Goldman Sachs favored March and June, while Nomura Securities targeted June and September. $ETH