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Just been diving into something interesting - this 150-year-old financial chart by Samuel Benner, an Ohio farmer who mapped out market cycles back in 1875. His 'Prophecies of Future Ups and Downs in Prices' is actually wild when you look at how it's held up over time.
So here's the thing about Benner's framework. He basically divided market history into three patterns. First, panic years - roughly every 16-20 years you get economic crashes. Then boom years where everything peaks and you should be selling. And then the deep valleys, periods when to make money if you're patient and have dry powder.
Looking at his actual track record, the years marked as good times - 1926, 1953, 1972, 1989, 2007, 2016 - those were indeed peak selling opportunities for most assets. The hard times years like 1924, 1942, 1958, 1978, 1996, 2012, 2023? Those turned out to be solid buying windows if you had the conviction to hold through the cycle.
Here's where it gets interesting for us right now. According to Benner's cycle, 2026 is marked as a good times year. That's the periods when to make money mentality that would suggest we're entering a phase where assets appreciate and it's time to position. The previous hard times year was 2023, which honestly... that was rough for most of us, but it set up the conditions for what's coming.
Now I'm not saying Benner predicted crypto or anything, but the broader market cycle logic is fascinating. If this historical pattern holds even partially, the periods when to make money would be concentrated in the next couple of years before we potentially see another panic cycle around 2035-2043 range.
BTC, ETH, and assets like BNB have already started showing strength into 2026. Whether you believe in Benner's 150-year-old cycles or not, the macro setup does feel like we're in one of those accumulation-to-distribution phases. Definitely worth tracking how this plays out against his framework.
What's your take? Do you pay attention to these longer-term cycle theories, or are you more focused on shorter timeframes?