Bosera Market Commentary for March 31: The three major indices adjusted, with the ChiNext Index down 2.7%

🌟【Bosera Market Review March 31】All three major indexes adjust; the ChiNext Index falls 2.7%

📝Daily Insights

🎈Today, the three major indexes in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets adjusted; the ChiNext Index fell 2.7%, and total trading volume across both markets increased versus yesterday to more than RMB 2 trillion. Today, the National Bureau of Statistics released China’s March Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), which was 50.4%, returning to the expansion zone. The non-manufacturing business activity index and the composite PMI output index were 50.1% and 50.5%, respectively, and both also rebounded to above the critical point. The data show that, on the basis of a seasonal rebound in economic sentiment after the Spring Festival, policy efforts combined to deliver an improvement that exceeded the seasonal norm. Manufacturing returned to the expansion zone, small business sentiment rebounded, and new orders warmed up—these are the core highlights; however, demand shortfalls in non-manufacturing and cost pressures brought by a rapid rise in raw material prices still need attention. Going forward, it remains necessary to watch whether demand improvement can transmit from manufacturing to a broader range of service industries, and whether cost pressure could erode corporate earnings. It is recommended to pay attention to the quarterly economic data and listed company earnings reports that will be released next, to verify the actual strength of the fundamental improvement. On the investment side, in the short term, amid disturbances from external geopolitical conflicts, a defensive strategy may still be the better choice. In equities, you may consider an allocation of “low-volatility dividends + deterministic growth.” From a medium- to long-term perspective, repeated geopolitical conflicts may accelerate global capital’s demand for allocations to safe assets. A better domestic security environment and a gradual improvement in fundamentals may attract cross-border capital allocation.

🔥News Snapshot

🎈On March 30, Iran’s parliamentary National Security Committee officially approved a bill to impose charges on vessels transiting through the Strait of Hormuz. According to the bill, Iran plans to implement financial arrangements and a charging system in the form of Iranian rials; it will prohibit U.S. and Israeli vessels from passing through the Strait of Hormuz; it will prohibit vessels from countries that participate in unilateral sanctions against Iran; Iran will cooperate with Oman to develop relevant legal framework to maintain Iran and its armed forces’ dominant position.

Brief Comment: Iran’s parliament’s passage of the Strait of Hormuz charging bill is an important upgrade in the escalation of the standoff between the U.S. and Iran—from “military threats” to “legal codification.” This move transforms geopolitical competition from temporary conflicts into institutional arrangements. The Strait of Hormuz—an “artery” for roughly 20% of global oil transport—faces the risk of long-termized control. Previously, President Trump’s claim that “Iran has agreed to most of the contents” has been proven overly optimistic by facts. The passage of this bill means the geopolitical risk premium may be difficult to quickly dissipate; attention should be paid to the cost pressure on mid- and downstream industries from elevated oil prices.

🎈On March 31, the National Bureau of Statistics showed that in March, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) was 50.4%, up 1.4 percentage points from the previous month, returning to the expansion zone. Looking at sub-category indexes, the production index was 51.4% and the new orders index was 51.6%, up by 1.8 and 3.0 percentage points, respectively, from the previous month—expanding simultaneously on both the supply and demand sides. The non-manufacturing business activity index was 50.1%, and the composite PMI output index was 50.5%, both above the critical point.

Brief Comment: March’s PMI returning to the expansion zone is a combined result of resumption of work after the Spring Festival and improvement in domestic demand. With expansion on both the supply and demand sides and the new orders index rebounding by 3.0 percentage points, the performance stands out and reflects a clear improvement in market demand. PMI returning above the boom-bust line helps boost overall market confidence, and the fundamentals for cyclical sectors such as equipment manufacturing, consumer goods, and infrastructure investment are expected to improve. However, attention should be paid to whether the index for new export orders also rebounds in sync, and to the structural concerns that persist—such as service-industry business activity indexes like those for real estate and retail still remaining in contraction territory.

🎈On March 30, the world’s first specialized international organization aimed at promoting data development and governance practices—the World Data Organization (WDO)—was officially established in Beijing and held its first members’ conference. The World Data Organization is a specialized, non-governmental, non-profit international organization formed voluntarily by relevant institutions and individuals in the global data field. The organization will work to promote global data cooperation and governance practices, and explore efficient exchange and reasonable utilization paths for data on a foundation of compliance, security, and trustworthiness. Its headquarters is in Beijing.

Brief Comment: The establishment of the World Data Organization in Beijing is a landmark event symbolizing the strengthening of China’s voice in the field of global digital governance, and it brings long-term institutional dividends to industries related to the digital economy supply chain. As the first specialized international organization in the field of data governance worldwide, it will provide an international cooperation platform for key issues such as cross-border flows of data and protection of data property rights, helping reduce the compliance costs for Chinese companies taking data abroad. Meanwhile, the organization’s establishment is expected to catalyze valuation logic in sectors such as data factors, data security, and cross-border data circulation.

👉Market Review

🎈On March 31, all three major A-share indexes fell. By the close, the Shanghai Composite Index was at 3,891.86 points, down 0.80%; the Shenzhen Component Index was at 13,478.06 points, down 1.81%; the ChiNext Index was at 3,184.95 points, down 2.70%; and the STAR Market 100 was at 1,471.05 points, down 2.68%. Among Shenwan Level-1 industries, only household appliances, banks, and food and beverage rose, with gains of 1.57%, 0.72%, and 0.23%, respectively; coal, electrical equipment, and electronics led the declines, falling 3.67%, 3.21%, and 2.71%, respectively. 927 stocks rose and 4,234 stocks fell.

💰Capital Tracking

🎈The market trading value was RMB 20k, up from the prior trading day. The balance of margin financing and securities lending (two-margin balance) closed yesterday at RMB 2.01T, up from the prior trading day.

Source of data: Eastmoney, as of March 31, 2026. Funds involve risk; invest with caution. Fund managers undertake to manage and use fund assets in accordance with the principles of honesty and creditworthiness, and diligence and responsibility, but do not guarantee that a fund will necessarily be profitable or that returns will be guaranteed. Past performance of a fund does not predict its future performance.

The formation of a MACD “golden cross” signal—these stocks have been doing well!

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责任编辑：江钰涵