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I've been observing interesting movements in USDT dominance over the past few weeks. This metric, which usually rises during market downturns, is currently at 7.53% and has formed an intermediate support/resistance zone around 4.80%.
Looking at the weekly chart, I see two different range structures — one broader and one narrower. Interestingly, after spending some time in the lower part of the narrow range, USDT dominance broke below 4.50% with a high-volume surge and rose up to 5.20%. This indicates that dollar dominance is signaling the overall market trend.
I believe the weekly close will be critical for short- to medium-term outlooks. If USDT.D closes above 4.80% at the end of the week, I expect the next targets to be 5.00% and 5.25%, which are (range equilibrium) levels. If it reaches 5.55%, that could be a peak before the upcoming altcoin rally.
My strategic perspective: If USDT.D tests the 5.25% and 5.55% levels and other indicators like TOTAL and BTC dominance confirm, it would be reasonable to take spot altcoin positions in two stages. In this case, 4.00% and 3.80% levels could serve as sell zones.
Reminder: An increase in USDT dominance generally indicates market weakness, while a decrease suggests strength. This is just my analysis, not investment advice.