April 2 Closing: U.S. stocks closed higher, led by technology stocks. The market continues to focus on the Iran situation.

In the early hours of April 2 Beijing time, U.S. stocks rose on Wednesday, with technology stocks leading the gains, and the Nasdaq climbed 250 points.

U.S. President Trump said that Iran’s president has asked the United States for a ceasefire, but Iranian authorities dismissed it.

As the market increasingly expects the U.S.-Iran conflict to be nearing its end, oil prices fell on the first trading day of April.

The Dow rose 224.35 points, up 0.48%, to 46,565.86; the Nasdaq rose 250.32 points, up 1.16%, to 21,840.95; and the S&P 500 index rose 46.84 points, up 0.72%, to 6,575.36.

Intel surged 8.8% at the close. Earlier, the chipmaker agreed to repurchase 49% of Apollo’s stake in its Ireland Fab 34 joint venture for $14.2 billion.

After the sharp selloff in March, the market saw broad-based gains, but some analysts said ongoing uncertainty around oil prices and geopolitical risks may limit further upside.

Before the U.S. stock market opened on Wednesday, President Trump posted on Truth Social that Iran’s “new regime president” has submitted a request to the United States for a ceasefire.

Trump also added that the United States would only consider the ceasefire request made by Iran after the Strait of Hormuz is “open, free, and accessible.” He wrote: “Until then, we will blow Iran to smithereens, or as they put it, we will blow them back to the Stone Age!!!”

A day earlier, on Tuesday night, Trump told reporters at the White House that he expects U.S. troops to leave Iran “within two to three weeks.”

What is well known, however, is that although Iran recently replaced its supreme leader, it did not produce a new president and did not form a new regime. As a result, media and investors have no idea who Iran’s “new regime president” Trump referred to is.

Analysts pointed out that Trump’s post looks more like a carefully planned political performance aimed at influencing public opinion through information-making, rather than conveying an objective fact.

In response, Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Ismael Bakayi quickly dismissed on Wednesday that Trump-related remarks about Tehran seeking a ceasefire are false and have no basis in fact.

After Trump’s remarks, oil prices dipped. On Wednesday, U.S. crude oil futures settled at $100.12 per barrel, down $1.26, or 1.24%.

Optimism that the war might be ending drove a big jump in stocks on Tuesday, the last trading day of March.

Earlier on Tuesday, unconfirmed reports said that Iran’s president, Masoud Pezeshkian, was willing to end the war if guarantees were in place. Earlier this month, he also made similar comments, posting on the X platform that, “The only way to end this war… is to recognize Iran’s legitimate rights, pay reparations, and obtain firm international guarantees to prevent future aggression.”

But not all investors believe this rally can last.

Karen Fennemann, co-founder and CEO of Metropolitan Capital Advisors, said oil prices are still high, which may suggest uncertainty remains. The Brent crude futures for May delivery closed at $118.35 per barrel on Tuesday, up about 5%, setting the highest closing price since June 16, 2022.

She said: “I’m inclined to believe oil prices reflect the real situation. I think a lot of what’s happening here—certainly a short-term oversold rebound—but I think it’s largely window dressing. We’re in a very tough end-of-quarter period, which will help some, but I’m not sure this momentum can continue.”

On Tuesday, on the economic data front in the U.S., March ADP private payrolls totaled 62k, beating expectations.

ADP reported on Wednesday that private sector employment growth in March was slightly better than expected, but healthcare and construction continued to contribute nearly all of the growth momentum. Total employment for the month rose by 62k, down only 4,000 versus February’s upwardly revised level, but still above the Dow Jones forecast of 39k. ADP’s report excludes government employees.

Similar to the February report, the two industries basically accounted for all of the growth.

Education and health services contributed 58k—unchanged from February’s total—while construction added 30k. Last month, the overall health services total was held back by the Caesar Medical Group strike, which has since been resolved and had previously led to more than 30k workers in Hawaii and California being laid off.

“We’ve seen fairly steady job growth for two consecutive months, but most of it is coming from the healthcare industry,” ADP chief economist Nerra-Richardson told the media. “That’s the key. The healthcare industry is changing the labor market.”

The language from Fed officials is starting to shift, with energy as the driving force. Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid said in a speech in Oklahoma City that the recent surge in oil prices related to the conflict with Iran should not be seen as a temporary phenomenon, especially when inflation has been above the target level for a long time.

A few weeks before Schmid made this comment, policymakers kept interest rates unchanged at the meeting on March 17–18, when there was still uncertainty about how rising energy costs would pass through to the broader economy.

Schmid pointed to a transmission channel investors were already familiar with: higher oil and gas prices filter into core inflation through categories such as airline fares and transportation. Given that inflation has been above the Fed’s 2% target for about five years, he believes there is a risk that inflation will stabilize around 3% rather than falling significantly downward. At the same time, he acknowledged that the economy has remained resilient, with growth and consumption steady; despite relatively soft hiring, he said the energy shock could still slightly weigh on growth.

The broader impact is that the policy path will become more complicated. Schmid said that given the cross-effects between inflation and employment, he is placing more emphasis on inflation risks at this stage. This stance echoes concerns expressed by other officials, although Fed Chair Jerome Powell said it is still too early to determine the full impact of rising energy prices on the economy. For investors, this dynamic could mean that any rate-cut actions would be conditional, especially if energy-driven inflation pressures start to persist.

On Wednesday, Alberto-Mousalim, president of the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank, said that given the “highly uncertain” economic outlook, he believes interest rates should be kept unchanged.

“Real policy rates—that is, nominal rates adjusted for expected inflation—were already in a neutral range before the recent rise in energy prices, and then further decreased,” he said in remarks at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington, D.C.

“I also think that the current policy rate appropriately balances the risks we face in our dual mandate of maximum employment and stable prices, and could continue to remain appropriate for some time,” he added.

Mousalim this year is a non-voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee. He will have voting rights again in 2028.

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责任编辑：张俊 SF065