The worst oil crisis in history has arrived at the right time, benefiting China's electric vehicle giants.

On October 25, 2025, a BYD car parked in the port area at Wilhelmshaven Port, Germany.

A historic oil shock and a surge in fuel prices are increasingly highlighting the advantages of electric vehicles. Chinese electric-vehicle manufacturers are gearing up, ready to seize this opportunity.

The war between the United States and Israel against Iran has disrupted key fossil-fuel supplies in the Middle East. Last week, crude oil prices briefly surged to as high as $119 per barrel. This has sparked fears of higher inflation and even a global economic downturn.

But for China’s electric-vehicle industry, this upheaval couldn’t have come at a more timely moment. Although Chinese electric-vehicle makers lead the world in both manufacturing and exports, domestic automakers are facing intense price wars and slowing growth at home. Chinese brands are under mounting pressure and urgently need to expand into overseas markets.

Now, electric-vehicle prices in China continue to fall, while gasoline prices keep rising. Analysts say this combination will very likely accelerate the industry’s global expansion, especially in Asian countries where the impact of fuel shortages is most severe.

Liu Le, general manager and managing director of consulting firm Sino Auto Insights, said: “High gasoline prices create enormous potential for Chinese brands to make a big push into Asian markets. I expect them to fully exploit this opportunity.”

Despite rising investment across Asia in renewable energy, the three-week Middle East conflict has underscored the region’s continued reliance on oil imports. About 60% of Asia’s crude oil supply comes from the Middle East, requiring shipment through the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran has imposed strict limits on cargo traffic through that strait.

The energy think tank Ember said in a recent report that electric vehicles are the “biggest lever for cutting import bills.” According to its estimates, last year, the use of electric vehicles reduced global daily crude oil consumption by 1.7 million barrels—about 70% of Iran’s 2025 export volume.

Accelerating Adoption

On November 5, 2025, electric vehicles on the production lines at BYD’s Zhengzhou plant in Zhengzhou, China.

Analysts point out that just as the Russia-Ukraine conflict has driven investment in renewable energy in Europe, today’s oil crisis could become another turning point for Asia’s clean-energy industry.

Laurie Milivelt, chief analyst and co-founder of the Center for Energy and Clean Air Research, said: “If it were just a price surge in a low-inflation environment, people might be able to shrug it off. But if it happens again, it could be a ‘no more than three times’ moment—making people deeply aware of the volatility of oil prices, and that driving a gasoline-powered car will always expose them to this kind of risk.”

More than 40% of China’s oil comes from the Middle East, and the shift toward renewable energy has started to show results. As the world’s largest oil reserve holder and also the biggest country for wind power and solar power generation, China is better able than other Asian countries to withstand this energy crisis.

Milivelt estimates that the adoption of electric vehicles in China—about 50% of new vehicle sales and roughly 12% of the total number of registered vehicles—last year reduced China’s oil consumption by nearly 10%.

He said: “From China’s perspective, this is exactly what it anticipated when rolling out its energy security strategy.”

Zhao Yi Zhu, executive director of the Middle East Studies Institute at Peking University HSBC Business School, believes this oil crisis may accelerate China’s achievement of clean-energy goals—specifically, reaching peak carbon emissions by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060.

Zhu Zhao Yi said: “China’s leadership is no stranger to this. Every bout of instability in the Middle East reinforces the same lesson: relying on imported fossil fuels is not only bad for the environment—it is also a national security issue.”

The Capacity Overhang Dilemma

On March 21, 2026, at Lianyungang Port in China, domestically made vehicles waiting to be loaded for export.

Government-level support helps China become the global leader in high value-for-money electric vehicles, but it also creates a brutal competitive environment for local automakers. In a market plagued by excess capacity, many automakers are now struggling just to survive.

AlixPartners estimates that among 129 Chinese electric-vehicle brands in the 2024 market, only about 15 will be able to achieve financial sustainability by 2030. Analysts expect that as the Chinese government gradually phases out subsidies for electric vehicles, domestic demand will slow further.

A recent spike in oil prices may provide the domestic automakers with the boost they urgently need, but they still need overseas markets to absorb the excess capacity.

Zhang Yichao, automotive industry advisor at AlixPartners, said: “Even if rising oil prices further expand the size of China’s electric-vehicle market, it cannot achieve a doubling in growth. I believe this will not immediately solve the problem of excess capacity.”

This excess capacity is unlikely to benefit American consumers. High U.S. tariffs have effectively kept Chinese electric vehicles out to protect domestic automakers, including market leader Tesla. Earlier this year, U.S. President Trump seemed to open the door to Chinese electric-vehicle brands—but on the condition that they build plants in the United States.

But in Asia, as fuel inventories decline, countries are urgently seeking ways to save energy. Countries such as Thailand, the Philippines, and Vietnam have asked people to work from home and limited the use of air conditioners. After VinFast, a leading electric-vehicle maker in Vietnam, was attacked in Iran, it began offering discounts on electric vehicles and electric motorcycles.

Fan Lin, an energy analyst for Ember in Asia, said that thanks to pricing competitiveness, advanced battery technology, and a well-developed supply chain, Chinese electric vehicles hold an advantage in most Asian markets.

He said: “As fuel-price volatility increases and policy support strengthens, it means the Asian electric-vehicle market will grow quickly. This expansion will benefit all electric-vehicle manufacturers, but it will especially favor companies that can rapidly expand production and offer high value-for-money models.”

A vast flow of information and precise analysis—right on the Sina Finance app

责任编辑：郭明煜