Hexun Investment Advisor Chen Xiujuan: A-shares will reach a critical milestone!

Market news is more intense than the last, and once retail investors read it, their hearts jolt—A-shares are set to enter a crucial turning point.

In the first piece of news, the situation in the Middle East is still dominating the headlines, and Iharkalke Island was attacked again. Since the market fears an escalation, after the news came out, Brent crude prices surged straight up, while the three major U.S. stock indices plunged before the market open. For A-shares, on Wednesday at 8 a.m. is the final deadline set by Trump; the market expects to respond differently based on Trump’s actions. If it’s all softened talk, the market could continue in a state of consolidation with a mild repair trend, with the short-term market expected to deliver a “rebound from losses” effect. If the conflict fully escalates, once the shorts have finished venting, it will be “bad news has run out.” Still, you can pick up a bit of stock when panic hits. The three minor conflict situations remain up in the air, and the market will continue to grind out its base.

In the second piece of news, efforts are being strengthened to safeguard the supply chain and industrial chain security in key areas, to ensure the steady and continuous operation of production and circulation of key-area raw materials, technologies, equipment, products, and so on. The State Council Premier recently signed a State Council Order, elevating the safeguarding of the supply chain and industrial chain security in key areas to the level of national regulation. With a clear legal basis and mandatory guarantees provided for related work, bottleneck-prone segments such as semiconductor materials and lithography machines are expected to continue to benefit. For A-shares, boosted by good news such as deepseek v4 throwing its support behind domestically made chips, and Samsung confirming that the second-quarter DRAM contract price will rise another 30%, on Tuesday the chip and semiconductor sector saw a clear rally. Late at night, senior officials delivered medium- to long-term positives, and combined with last week’s semiconductor equipment ETF share explosion of 12 billion shares, this indicates that institutions are continuously buying. Since this area has relatively low crowding, it’s worth paying attention to. Strategically, don’t chase at times of consecutive gains; focus mainly on buying on pullbacks.

In the third piece of news, hog prices have fallen below 5 yuan per jin, hitting the lowest level in seven years, pushing the pig-breeding industry back into a loss-making range. In the short term, once hog prices fall below 5 yuan, pig-farming companies keep losing money, and their first-quarter and mid-year reports are likely to look ugly, so the stock prices may face downward pressure as well. But in the medium to long term, the worse the losses, the faster capacity will be eliminated; and once capacity is reduced significantly, hog prices will inevitably rebound in the future. For A-shares, capital has always liked to trade expectations. The lower hog prices go, the more likely capital is to start positioning early and bet on a cycle reversal. Strategically, if the hog-meat sector index stops making new lows, and the pullback lows gradually lift, and if it can withstand bearish impact when earnings-related news turns negative, the relevant leading stocks can be used for medium-term deep digging.

Next, we’ll talk about market direction and opportunities by sector. In the first trading day after the holiday, the market saw a modest rise—this is emotional repair after last week’s consecutive pullbacks. But the strength of the repair isn’t strong. From a technical perspective, it could go up or down, and the key still depends on the outcome of the U.S.-Iran negotiations. Strategically, as long as the technical and news environment hasn’t clearly improved, you still need to control your position size and focus on short-term “sell high and buy low.” Therapeutic direction. The innovative drug sector index tested the lows and rebounded on Tuesday; both the multi-day-limited board leaders and the trend leaders are continuing to push higher in terms of height, and sentiment is still good—keep it on your watchlist. As for the chemical sector, it rose strongly on Tuesday, stimulated by the attack on the Saudi Petrochemical Industrial Park. This area has a logic for price increases and has earnings support. Check the sustainability. For new energy and computing power, commercial aerospace, and others, continue to focus mainly on rotation opportunities.

（责任编辑：张洋 HN080）

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