Hexun Investment Advisor Gao Luming: Will it go up today?

Late-night developments in the peripheral situation have brought new major changes. Europe plunged, and U.S. stocks found their lows and rebounded. How will the market move today?

First, let’s still look at the news. The latest information shows that Trump has agreed to pause the attacks for two weeks. It’s very clear that tensions have eased. So after this news goes out, we can see that the global market will very likely be affected by it, creating an opportunity for a rebound. However, there are three key points everyone must pay attention to next.

The first key point is that after this news is released, it is bearish for crude oil. Pay attention to the bearish impact on the oil sector and related influences.

In addition, the second point to watch is several signals. You must pay attention to whether the buying strength from the bulls can truly gain momentum. In yesterday’s three major indices, we saw an obvious pattern of a volatile rebound. In real trading practice, this kind of volatile rebound doesn’t have much meaning. Here, it is necessary to show strong bullish candles—to clearly demonstrate that the main fund has a bullish (long) stance. Because even if there is good news influencing the market, if the main fund doesn’t send a strong signal, then it will be difficult for the market to rise. Just like on April 1, when news from the periphery spread this kind of easing-related positive development—the market opened higher, went into choppy trading, and afterwards it still fell. So today, we must show a strong state and reflect that the main fund truly wants to push prices higher.

The second point: Today, the market must show an obvious volume-expansion move. Only when large money enters the market and the index moves with that participation will there be a chance to move into an upward trend. If large money still doesn’t enter, then at most it will just keep churning in a range, and it will be hard to deliver a strong upside attack.

The third point is that the weighty sectors and the technology sector must both gain momentum. Only when they gain momentum will the market have the opportunity to form a good upward move here. So today, everyone should focus on this: as long as these three signals hold, then in this case it’s very likely that we can again consider the opportunity for an upswing. For the trading approach, we also previously emphasized that if today’s signals match, then we can consider gradually bottom-fishing and adding positions. But if these parts don’t match, then we’ll patiently wait and keep waiting.

(Editor: Zhang Yang HN080)

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