Hexun Investment Advisor Huang Ruchen: The index is expected to show a phased pullback trend

Today, the overall environment of the A-share market is likely under pressure. At the index level, it is expected to show a staged pullback. The core reasons are threefold: first, in the U.S. stock market last night, the top three index futures all plunged before the open, coupled with the ongoing escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East—an attack was carried out on Iran’s Hark Island, Israel launched large-scale airstrikes against Iran, and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz was disrupted, further affecting market risk appetite; second, last night’s A-share market saw a shrink in trading volume on a broad-based rebound, with total turnover across both exchanges falling to about 1.61 trillion yuan. This rebound is more of a weak repair after oversold conditions than a trend-based bottom reversal. It has not yet met the criteria for a bottoming formation. There is no support from incremental off-exchange funds, so it is more like a false recovery; third, in the pharmaceutical sector, sentiment-front individual stocks yesterday triggered abnormal trading behavior on their own initiative and were then added to key monitoring. Judging from the performance of yesterday’s pharmaceutical leaders, even though core names such as PharmaTech (WuXi AppTec) and Mindray Medical have had localized fluctuations, the overall picture is still a differentiated trend. Today, we need to closely observe the feedback from these capacity trend stocks; their performance will directly determine the direction of the entire pharmaceutical theme. From the standpoint of trading direction, if last night’s U.S. stock market volatility forms a clear mapping to today’s A-share market, the tech line that resonates with the index (especially the technology hardware segment) may present opportunities for bargain-buying. You can focus on whether it pulls back to the bottom of the trading range. However, note that intraday trading is relatively difficult, and the experience of holding positions may not be good. The main reason is that crude oil prices are rising significantly—domestic refined oil was raised on April 7, and the Middle East conflict has restricted global crude oil supply. Rising oil prices can create a capital “rainbow-sucking” effect on other themes in the A-share market, squeezing out funding space for non-energy themes. Second, when intraday divergence at the index level tilts downward, the pharmaceutical “bonded” positions on the defensive side are usually an alternative direction, because the pharmaceutical sector as a whole has a contrarian-to-index resonance attribute. But due to the impact of yesterday’s leaders that were重点监控 (key monitoring), today the pharmaceutical sector’s performance needs to anchor to the feedback from that core underlying stock: if it shows strength, there is still a possibility for the pharmaceutical sector to keep bonding together; if it weakens, you need to be wary of the risk of the bonded positioning loosening. Combined with the fact that most pharmaceutical sector leaders yesterday saw small pullbacks, you should handle opportunities to participate in this direction cautiously. A more novel direction is the chemical sector. Yesterday, this sector showed obvious signs of an oversold rebound. There were 29 first-board stocks. The core logic is that rising oil prices drove up prices of basic chemical feedstocks; additionally, after the sector’s momentum-chasing in March, the core large-cap stocks saw a significant pullback and then gradually stabilized, giving it the potential for continuity in an oversold rebound. The chemical sector’s logic is similar to that of the power sector: both have relatively stable principal businesses and are both in the oversold-repair phase after the March trading frenzy. The current April timing also fits the seasonal performance pattern of the sector. For this theme, it is recommended to follow the “信早信” principle. If today the “one-in-two” one-character boards are plentiful, the sector’s strength will be further enhanced, and you can seize arbitrage opportunities—funds that missed the main board last time will be unable to enter yesterday, so today’s arbitrage window may open. If you have reservations, you can first observe over the next three trading days, focusing on selecting the main-board issues that hit limit-up yesterday. For stocks that did not hit limit-up, you can exclude them based on the “去弱留强” principle. It should be clear that at the index level, until there is no confirmatory breakdown with expanded volume indicating a bottom, it is impossible to determine that the market has stabilized, and it is far from meeting the standard for a true bottom. Given the current shrinking-volume setup and the uncertainty from external geopolitical conflicts, it is unlikely that before the May Day holiday there will be an index-level行情 (market move) of that magnitude. In terms of trading, conservative investors can prioritize avoiding volatility driven by news about external geopolitical conflicts. If you insist on participating, you need to follow the intraday short-term sentiment unfolding path: when trading in directions that resonate with the index, once you have a good run, take profits and don’t hold out for too much. During periods of pullbacks on shrinking volume, you can focus on the performance of the bonded stocks to use this opportunity to improve your ability to select and judge bonded stocks.

(责任编辑：张洋 HN080)

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