Changjiang Nonferrous: Copper prices rose on the 31st; downstream demand for deliveries is average at the end of the month and before the Qingming Festival.

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Yangtze Nonferrous Metals Network

March 31 copper futures market updates: In today’s Shanghai copper futures market, after the morning session opened higher, prices moved within a narrow range and weakened slightly; in the afternoon, it entered a sideways consolidation and adjustment area. At the close, it ultimately ended the day’s trading with a small bearish candle. The lead month 2605 contract opened at 96,100 yuan/ton, with a highest price of 96,240 yuan/ton and a lowest price of 95,150 yuan/ton. The previous settlement was 95,400 yuan/ton. Today’s closing price was 95,340 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan, a decline of 0.06%. For the Shanghai copper benchmark 2605 contract, total trading volume for the whole day was 96,875 lots, down 3,266 lots, and open interest was 185,747 lots, up 473 lots. In the Asian session, the London copper trend showed a “roller coaster” pattern. As of 15:05 Beijing time, the latest quote was 12,225.5 USD/ton, up 30.5 USD/ton, up 0.25%.

Yangtze Copper Industry website copper price statistics: Today, domestic spot copper prices rose. Yangtze spot 1#铜价报95790元/吨，涨410元，升水120-升水160，持平；长江综合1# copper price was 95,735 yuan/ton, up 420 yuan; premium was 30–140, up 10 yuan. Guangdong spot 1#铜价报95740元/吨，涨430元，贴水10-升水190，涨20元；上海地区1# copper price was 95,670 yuan/ton, up 420 yuan; discount was 20–premium 60, up 10 yuan.

Yangtze Copper Market analysis:

On the macro level, U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Monday (March 30) delivered remarks at Harvard University, clearly stating that although energy prices have risen due to geopolitical conflicts, inflation expectations remain stable and there is no need for the Federal Reserve to raise rates. This “dovish” statement quickly eased market fears of rate hikes, and investors’ expectations for rate hikes this year fell sharply.

On the domestic front, the manufacturing PMI returned to the expansion range. The official March manufacturing PMI came in at 50.4%, up 1.4 percentage points from the previous month. The non-manufacturing business activity index also rose to 50.1%, indicating a marginal improvement in overall economic conditions. However, the ongoing escalation of the situation in the Middle East continues to cast a shadow over global financial markets. If the conflict becomes prolonged, damage to energy infrastructure and high oil prices may weigh on economic growth and raise inflation, which could in turn trigger a pullback in the stock market or a return of funds to the bond market. Today, global equities broadly fell. The U.S. dollar index stayed around 100.47 in a high-range consolidation. The metals market faced clear pressure, and the bull-bear game in Shanghai copper futures intensified.

On the fundamentals, the supply side continues to maintain a tight balance pattern. Uncertainty still remains regarding overseas copper mine supply. In China, spot treatment charges for copper concentrates (TC/RC) have continued to linger at low levels. Smelters have limited acceptance of such low treatment charges, leading to considerable production pressure. Going forward, it is important to watch whether smelters will cut production due to losses, which provides solid cost support for copper prices. In terms of inventories and spot markets, high LME copper inventories exert some pressure on copper prices, but the domestic spot market shows differentiation: the recent decline in copper prices has stimulated downstream buyers’ willingness to replenish inventories on dips. Yet the weak real estate market, limited support from consumption of home appliances and new energy vehicles, and generally average downstream receiving demand around the end of the month and before the Qingming Festival mean there is little room for spot premiums to rise, and the market overall maintains a cautious wait-and-see sentiment.

Looking ahead, the risk of liquidity squeezing has generally eased for the moment, and the focus of copper prices has stabilized. Although there is uncertainty on the macro level, domestic fundamentals have shown positive signals: ahead of the Qingming Festival, the market had expectations of inventory build-up, and in the second quarter it is expected to continue reducing inventories, so social inventories may fall to below neutral levels. In the short term, supported by a rebound in macro sentiment and expectations of fundamental inventory drawdowns, it is expected that copper prices will continue to trade within a range-bound pattern. It is recommended to closely monitor developments in the Middle East situation and the pace of domestic social inventory drawdowns.

Yangtze Nonferrous Metals Network www.ccmn.cn Phone: 0592-5668838

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