Hexun Investment Advisor Lü Nimang: Waiting for the true turning point to appear

Let’s review yesterday’s market action: China’s A-share three major indexes all closed higher. In the early session, the bulls’ momentum was in full force— the Shanghai Composite surged to 3,902 points, almost poised to hold above a key level. But the shorts suddenly launched a fierce counterattack, and the index instantly plunged by nearly 30 points. The 300 million investors in the market collectively broke into a cold sweat. In the afternoon, the market took a risky dip and then rebounded; in the end, it delivered a broad-based advance where nearly 4,000 individual stocks closed in the green. However, the index ultimately failed to reclaim lost ground.

This spine-tingling roller-coaster path still didn’t allow retail investors to truly feel at ease. The two words “shrinking trading volume” are like a heavy stone pressing on every retail trader’s heart. Many people ask: in April, is there really a market opportunity? The answer surprised everyone: the session’s hot topics rotated at lightning speed, and once retail investors chased, they got trapped. Even though the number of stocks hitting the limit-down decreased and panic sentiment eased somewhat, the market kept shrinking in volume, and a wait-and-see mood among funds remained strong. Funds on the sidelines were still unwilling to step in. Only sectors like chemicals and organic silicon saw a surge to the daily limit. In particular, the organic silicon concept rose 4.35%. Several stocks, including Dongyue Silicones and Xinan Shares, hit limit-up. Net inflows from main funds reached 887 million yuan, while most other sectors were still grinding their bases.

A core question comes up: today’s low-volume rebound— is it a signal that a bottom is in, or a bear-market trap designed to lure buyers? Will the next move be to hold above 3,900 and sound the clarion call for a counterattack, or will it turn around to test 3,850? Don’t make wild guesses or act blindly. In the next minute, I’ll lay out the underlying logic of the market’s bottom in plain terms and then give everyone a clear response strategy. No matter whether you’re completely in cash waiting, hesitant with half a position, or fully invested and trapped—watch carefully and you’ll find the answer.

First, a clear viewpoint: on Wednesday, A-shares will most likely open low and then trade higher! With bad news already out of the way, the market could open sharply lower, but afterward it should stabilize and rebound with the expectation of support funds and as the bad news is fully digested. It may even turn green. The specific logic has three points—remember them:

First, the rally is only a technical dead-cat bounce, not a trend reversal. There were too many declines before Qingming Festival, so it’s normal to catch a breather after the holiday. Today’s bullish candle is more of a repair move for the consecutive selling before the holiday. A “rally then fade” pattern indicates that some funds used the early high to realize profits, while more funds are observing and waiting for clearer signals. This is also the core reason why today’s volume didn’t effectively expand. Across the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets, total turnover for the whole day was about 1.61 trillion yuan, slightly lower than before the holiday. Above the 3,900-point level, sell pressure is extremely heavy, and main funds simply have no intention of “liberating” the trapped positions overhead. The rebound in the afternoon looks more like a defensive action to maintain market heat, not an active offensive. The goal is to make everyone feel, “It can’t fall further,” so they stay in the market.

Second, big money has not yet made a full push—it’s still waiting for key signals. Today, small- and mid-cap theme stocks showed up in turn, which actually proves that big funds haven’t fully entered. Everyone is waiting for the final answer. Big funds have always been the “wait for the rabbit to appear before spreading the eagle”— before crucial messages land, funds remain cautious and stand by, fully in line with expectations. Also, note that Trump has agreed to pause attacks for two weeks; there are signs that geopolitical conflict is easing. This is a negative for the crude-oil sector and will indirectly affect the走势 of A-share energy-themed plays.

Third, there are two key signals for your trading—keep a close watch, and don’t miss either: ① After opening low, can price quickly reclaim and hold above 3,890 (today’s Shanghai Composite closed at 3,890.16 points)? ② During the rebound, can trading volume effectively and continuously expand?

Two scenarios—match them to the facts: If, after the open, price actively pulls back to today’s low at 3,875 points (today’s Shanghai Composite low was 3,875.68 points) and then doesn’t break below it, and afterward a momentum-led advance led by popular sectors like brokers or tech expands volume and pushes higher, holding above 3,900 points, then the rebound will have staying power. If it can’t hold 3,900 with volume, then a broad-based advance is just a continuation of the decline. The market will soon test 3,850 points again, and it may even break the double-bottom formation.

Finally, a clear response strategy for everyone: this low-volume bullish candle today can’t truly satisfy the market’s “thirst.” Until trading volume expands effectively, treat all upward moves as “lure-and-trap” behavior. The biggest positive for the stock market has never been slogans; it’s when funds are willing to enter and when the trend can keep generating sustainable profits.

My suggestion: rather than chasing and selling within rotating hot themes, getting repeatedly chopped up, do less and watch more—control your position sizing. Stick to your own conviction, don’t let emotions drive you, and don’t let hot themes “bind” you. Wait patiently for volume expansion and the moment when a real inflection point appears.

（责任编辑：张洋 HN080）

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