Trump's "Two Cards"—Ceasefire and Tariffs—How They Simultaneously Impact the Crypto Market

On the evening of April 7, Trump announced agreement to suspend attacks on Iran for two weeks, provided Iran opens the Strait of Hormuz. This decision marks a new phase in Middle East tensions. However, it is noteworthy that the documents signed by Trump on the same day show that the policies of imposing 50% tariffs on imported steel, aluminum, and copper, as well as 100% tariffs on pharmaceuticals, are still in progress. This means that the "de-escalation" and "pressure" cards are being played simultaneously.

The impact of the ceasefire on the crypto market has begun to show: Bitcoin broke through $72,000, Ethereum surpassed $2,200, and over 120k traders were liquidated across the network. The release of geopolitical risk premiums has given risk assets some breathing room. But a deeper analysis suggests that the positive effect of the ceasefire on crypto assets is more about "risk appetite recovery" rather than "fundamental improvement." Restoring navigation through the Strait of Hormuz will lower oil prices, easing inflationary pressures and creating room for the Federal Reserve's future policy adjustments—this is the true medium-term benefit.

The impact of tariff policies is more complex. A 50% tariff on steel, aluminum, and copper will increase manufacturing costs in the U.S., while a 100% tariff on pharmaceuticals will directly affect the global medical supply chain. These overlapping policies could exacerbate inflationary pressures and reduce the Fed's room to cut interest rates. The market has not fully priced in the long-term effects of these tariffs, which may be the "gray rhino" hidden behind the ceasefire news.

From an asset allocation perspective, the ceasefire window provides a valuable "valuation recovery period" for the crypto market. However, investors need to be clear: a two-week temporary ceasefire does not mean lasting peace. Among Iran's ten-point demands are "permanent end to the war" and "lifting sanctions," which fundamentally differ from the U.S. stance. The risk of negotiations breaking down still exists. During these two weeks, the market will be simultaneously influenced by the "ceasefire benefits" and the "tariff shadows." It is advisable to maintain flexible positions and avoid chasing highs.

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