New York Forex Market: US Dollar Index Falls Along with Oil Prices as Optimism for Middle East Ceasefire Grows

MaticHoleFiller · 2026-04-08T20:42:42+00:00

As optimistic expectations for the end of the Middle East conflict rise, oil prices have fallen back, and the US dollar index has also declined accordingly. Traders are awaiting a speech from U.S. President Trump on Iran, and the Strait of Hormuz remains largely blocked at present.The US dollar index dropped 0.2%, after falling as much as 0.5% during the session.Trump stated that he would only consider stopping attacks on Iran if the Strait of Hormuz reopens, further fueling public confusion about how long the U.S. is prepared to sustain this conflict.Trump plans to deliver a nationwide address at 9 p.m. Eastern Time on Wednesday.Data released by ADP Research Institute on Wednesday showed that U.S. private sector employment increased by 62k jobs in March, similar to the growth seen in February.The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing PMI prices paid index rose by 7.8 points.

MaticHoleFiller

2026-04-08 20:42:42

With growing optimism that the Middle East war may be nearing an end, oil prices have pulled back, and the U.S. Dollar Index has also fallen in tandem. Traders are waiting for U.S. President Trump to address the Iran issue, while the Strait of Hormuz remains essentially under blockade for now.

The U.S. Dollar Index fell 0.2%, dropping as much as 0.5% during the day.

Trump said he would only consider stopping attacks on Iran if the Strait of Hormuz is reopened, further intensifying outside confusion about how long the U.S. is prepared to keep this war going.

Trump plans to deliver a nationwide address at 9:00 p.m. Eastern Time on Wednesday.

Data released by the ADP Research Institute on Wednesday showed that the U.S. added 62,000 private-sector jobs in March, roughly in line with the February increase.

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Purchasing Managers Index for prices rose by 7.8 points to 78.3, remaining at the highest level since mid-2022.

The U.S. dollar/Japanese yen edged higher to 158.77.

Citi strategists noted that the Strait of Hormuz is still essentially under blockade; the war appears to be stuck in a stalemate, and we believe the likelihood of extreme outcomes is increasing (for example, the U.S. fully withdraws from the conflict or deploys ground forces)”.

Citi recommends a tactical short position in the U.S. dollar/Japanese yen, with a target of 153 and a stop-loss at 162.

The U.S. dollar/Swiss franc fell 0.7% to 0.7942.

The British pound/U.S. dollar rose 0.6% to 1.3306.

The Australian dollar/U.S. dollar rose 0.4% to 0.6929.

In a research note, TS Lombard strategist Daniel Von Ahlen said: “Compared with ‘Tariff Liberation Day,’ the Australian dollar has shown stronger resilience this time. Market expectations that the Middle East crisis will be resolved relatively quickly, along with dynamic changes in trade conditions, have provided support for the Australian dollar. However, Australia’s domestic labor market and cyclical data have already begun to soften; once the duration of the energy crisis exceeds expectations, the global economy will face downward pressure, and at that point the Australian dollar will almost inevitably come under strain.”

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