#Gate广场四月发帖挑战 Breaking Double Critical Hit! The Strait of Hormuz is closed again. Bitcoin drops below $71,000. After a 2,000-point震荡, what’s next?

The crypto market and geopolitical tensions are both causing chaos! On one side, Bitcoin plunges straight down, officially breaking the key psychological level of $71,000, with a “rise and fall”震荡行情 within 24 hours, intensifying the bulls and bears battle; on the other side, the Strait of Hormuz, a global energy “throat,” announces a complete closure again, with oil tankers forced to turn back and大量 ships stranded, causing severe turbulence in the energy market and further increasing global financial market uncertainty. Under these dual shocks, why did Bitcoin suddenly crash? Will it continue to decline? This article combines the latest market data and geopolitical developments to analyze the underlying logic and future trends, providing references for investors.

Market Brief: Bitcoin drops below $71,000,震荡超2000 points in 24 hours
As of press time, Bitcoin is quoted at $70,553.18, continuing to decline and approaching the critical support level of $70,000. It has officially broken the key support at $71,000, with short-term momentum clearly under pressure. In the past 24 hours, it has shown an “initial rise then fall” extreme震荡 pattern, with specific price data as follows, visually reflecting market volatility:
24H high: $72,857.00 (driven by short-term capital inflow in the early session, the price once surged to a recent high, just a step away from $73,000, then quickly retreated)
24H low: $70,468.63 (affected by the news of the Strait of Hormuz closure fermenting and profit-taking, the price plunged significantly, hitting the intraday low, barely holding the $70,400 level, just a step away from $70,000)
Current price: approximately $70,553.18 (weak oscillation within the $70,400-$70,600 range, selling pressure persists, buying support is relatively weak, unable to rebound effectively, continuously approaching the $70,000 key level) From the market performance, Bitcoin breaking below $71,000 and nearing $70,000 is not an isolated event but the result of a combination of “geopolitical shocks + technical breakdown + capital flight.” The market initially showed a震荡 upward trend in the morning, but after the sudden news of the Strait of Hormuz closure, panic sentiment increased, leading to集中抛售, with Bitcoin rapidly breaking the $71,000 support, short-term decline exceeding 3%, with volume also expanding, highlighting market panic selling and continued approach toward the $70,000 level.

Geopolitical Shock: Strait of Hormuz closes again, global energy markets stir
Amid Bitcoin’s震荡,重大 geopolitical news broke—the Strait of Hormuz announced a complete closure again, becoming the核心导火索 for the crypto market’s decline. According to the latest news, on April 8 local time, the Strait of Hormuz was fully closed. Oil tankers heading toward the strait had to turn around 180 degrees and return to the Persian Gulf’s deep waters. Currently, many ships are stranded near the strait, and navigation has come to a全面停滞. As the “throat” of global energy transportation, the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz is crucial, handling about 20% of global seaborne oil and 25% of liquefied natural gas trade, with daily crude oil transportation volume of 17-20 million barrels, and it is the only出口 for Gulf oil-producing countries.
This closure is not a temporary control but a持续升级 following geopolitical conflicts. After Israel’s attack on Lebanon, Iran has already停止油轮通行 through the strait. The complete closure this time worsens the global energy supply situation. More critically, the closure directly triggers severe turbulence in the global energy market, with international oil prices soaring rapidly. Brent crude has approached $112 per barrel, and market predictions suggest that if the closure persists, prices could突破$150 per barrel. The surge in energy prices further fuels inflation concerns, leading markets to expect that major central banks may delay rate cuts or tighten liquidity, which is a core reason for risk assets like Bitcoin being sold off. Notably, Iran previously requested that oil tankers passing through the strait pay transit fees in cryptocurrency during a ceasefire, which was seen as a positive signal for crypto. However, this complete closure triggers macro-level inflation and liquidity concerns, offsetting any benefits and instead acting as a catalyst for Bitcoin’s decline.

In-depth Analysis: Three core reasons for Bitcoin dropping below $71,000
The recent drop below $71,000 appears to be triggered by panic selling caused by sudden geopolitical news, but it is actually a集中爆发 of long-term accumulated contradictions. Combining the current market environment, the main reasons for the decline can be summarized as three points, with clear logic and market relevance:
1. Geopolitical shocks trigger inflation fears, negative for risk assets. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz causes oil prices to surge, directly raising global inflation expectations. Rising inflation will force central banks to maintain tightening monetary policies or delay rate cuts. For risk assets like Bitcoin that do not generate yields, liquidity tightening means higher capital costs and reduced attractiveness, prompting institutional and retail investors to sell off, pushing prices down.
2. Technical support levels broken, triggering follow-on selling. $71,000 is a key psychological support for Bitcoin in recent times. Multiple tests previously held successfully. After breaking below, technical signals indicate a breakdown, leading to大量跟风卖盘, further amplifying the decline. From technical indicators, the short-term trend has already shown weakness, with持续抛压, and no effective rebound momentum.
3. Capital profit-taking and flight, short-term sentiment under pressure. Bitcoin previously rebounded from around $67,000 to $72,857, with a short-term gain of over 8%, accumulating大量获利盘. The news of the Strait of Hormuz closure became a“导火索” for profit-taking, prompting many funds to cash out, causing rapid price decline and further market panic.

Future Trend Forecast: Short-term support game, medium-term geopolitics and inflation
Considering the impact of the Strait of Hormuz closure, current technical trends, and capital conditions, Bitcoin’s future trend will show a pattern of “short-term support game and medium-term geopolitics and inflation-driven.” Opportunities and risks coexist, with detailed analysis as follows:

Short-term (1-5 days): Support game at $70,700, beware of further decline. In the short term, the key is whether Bitcoin can hold the intraday low support of $70,700. If support fails, further decline may occur, with two main reasons:
1. Support pressure intensifies. $70,468.63 is the intraday low and a key support level. The current price approaching $70,000 increases support pressure. If it falls below $70,468.63, the next support is in the $68,500-$70,000 range, with short-term selling pressure not fully released. Panic sentiment may continue to spread, further suppressing prices, likely testing below $70,000.
2. Geopolitical uncertainty intensifies. After the Strait of Hormuz closure, global energy market turbulence will persist. Oil price surges and inflation fears will not ease in the short term. Market risk appetite remains low. As a risk asset, Bitcoin will likely stay weak or even continue to decline. Key levels to watch are: below $70,468.63 (core support, a break likely means falling below $70,000), and above $71,000 (resistance, reclaiming this level could ease short-term downward pressure and move away from $70,000).

Medium-term (1-4 weeks): Geopolitics and inflation dominate. Rebound depends on two major signals. Over the medium term, Bitcoin’s trend will mainly be influenced by the situation in the Strait of Hormuz and global inflation data. If these two signals appear, a rebound may occur; otherwise, downward pressure persists:
1. Geopolitical easing. If the Strait reopens or signals of improved navigation appear, energy supply tensions will ease, oil prices will fall, inflation expectations will cool, and market risk appetite will rise. Bitcoin may rebound, gradually recovering beyond $71,000 or higher. However, currently, reopening the Strait may take months, so short-term improvements are unlikely.
2. Inflation data cools. If global inflation data shows a decline, market expectations for rate cuts will rise, liquidity will improve, and institutional funds may re-enter crypto markets, supporting Bitcoin. Conversely, if inflation remains high and central banks maintain tightening policies, Bitcoin will face continued correction. From a technical perspective, Bitcoin is still in a recovery phase after a prior correction, without a clear reversal trend. The medium-term is likely to remain震荡, with no strong bullish trend.

Investment Strategy (Rational Reference)
Given the current market volatility caused by geopolitical shocks and heightened panic sentiment, investors should stay rational, avoid blindly bottom-fishing or panic selling. Based on short-term and medium-term trends, the following strategies are recommended:
Short-term: Do not blindly bottom-fish. Until the support at $70,468.63 is confirmed to stabilize, maintain light or no positions, as current prices near $70,000 increase risks. If support holds and rebound signals appear, try small positions targeting $71,000 with a stop-loss at $70,400. Strictly control positions to prevent falling below $70,000.
Medium-term: If the Strait reopens or inflation data cools, consider phased building positions, focusing on opportunities below $70,000. Long-term target is $72,500–$75,000, with a stop-loss at $68,500.
Risk Control: The market is highly uncertain. Do not leverage or hold heavy positions. Keep leverage within 2x. Pay close attention to the Strait of Hormuz situation, oil prices, and inflation data, and adjust strategies promptly.
Key Focus: Monitor the progress of Strait navigation, US inflation data, and Federal Reserve policy statements, as these factors will directly influence Bitcoin’s medium-term trend.

Risk Warning (Must Read)
Crypto markets are inherently highly volatile, compounded by geopolitical uncertainty from the Strait of Hormuz closure. Be alert to the following risks, stay rational, and avoid blindly following:
Geopolitical recurrence risk: The Strait closure may last months. If conflicts escalate, oil prices could surge further, inflation pressures increase, and Bitcoin may decline further. Breaking below $70,468.63 support could lead to a breach of $70,000 and even $68,500 support.
Support breach risk: If support at $70,468.63 fails, a new wave of selling may occur, with prices rapidly falling below $70,000 into the $68,500–$70,000 range, increasing short-term losses.
Inflation and monetary policy risk: Rising oil prices cause inflation to spike, possibly forcing the Fed to delay rate cuts or restart hikes. Liquidity tightening will continue to be negative for risk assets like Bitcoin.
Market sentiment reversal risk: Crypto market sentiment can fluctuate greatly. New geopolitical or regulatory bad news could cause rapid sentiment reversal and sharp price declines.

Summary: Under double shocks, rational response is key. The Strait of Hormuz closure has become the “last straw” that pushed Bitcoin below $71,000 and closer to $70,000, with a 2,000-point震荡 in 24 hours highlighting market fragility. Currently, the market faces “geopolitical conflict + inflation worries + technical breakdown” pressures. Short-term, it’s under pressure; medium-term, depends on geopolitical easing and inflation data cooling.
For investors, the most important thing now is to stay rational, abandon speculative “bottom-fishing” or “chasing dips” mentality, strictly control positions, and closely monitor key variables. While short-term volatility is intense, the long-term trend still depends on macro liquidity and industry fundamentals. Until uncertainties are resolved, cautious observation and prudent operation are the best ways to avoid risks and seize opportunities. The Strait of Hormuz closure again, Bitcoin drops below $71,000, approaching $70,000, with a 2,000-point震荡 in 24 hours!

Do you think Bitcoin will break below $70,000? Will geopolitical tensions continue to suppress the crypto market? Feel free to leave comments and share your views!