Last night, I opened a short position on the 720 layout during the live broadcast. After waking up this morning and carefully analyzing the market, it basically declined as expected. Bitcoin has already broken below the recent low of 70707, indicating a breakdown. The next support levels are around 698-695. I plan to close part of my position within this range.

Last night, a crypto friend was caught in a short position on Ethereum at 2175. The advice given was that it could be a way to recover from the loss. I also checked, and Ethereum has also fallen, so it should be able to recover. Regarding the US-Iran situation, I personally think it’s unlikely to reach an agreement. The disagreements are too big. I saw reports this morning that Iran says the US is not complying with the demands, and the US says the terms are unreasonable. Both sides are just pulling each other back and forth.

Now, it seems these issues have already become immune. It feels like the whole world is being driven crazy by Trump. Trump himself thinks I’m crazy, I’m rebellious, I’m obsessed. Anyway, I and the people around me are making a lot of money.

The Federal Reserve’s March minutes are also out. Several officials mentioned that interest rate hikes are on the table. Basically, don’t expect rate cuts in the first half of the year. Rate hikes might start, depending on the US-Iran developments. So, the bear market will likely continue.

Trump’s approval rating has already fallen below 40%. Originally, he was expected to stir things up for the midterm elections, using rhetoric to boost the market. Now, with the US-Iran situation escalating, it seems quite difficult. Let’s just observe for now.

I still firmly believe Bitcoin will reach the five-figure range (for reference only, please do your own analysis). The analysis suggests that by March or at the latest April, the situation would be clearer. But the chaos from the war has disrupted the rhythm, so we can only watch the market for now. It might even extend into the second half of the year. Let’s follow the US-Iran situation in April. One thing is certain: the bear market will continue and last longer than expected.

$BTC