I've always believed that many people are pursuing the secrets to success, but Charlie Munger has taught me a smarter way of thinking—if you want to understand success, you should first study failure. This is what I've been thinking about recently: reverse thinking, a way of thinking that smart people widely use.

In simple terms, reverse thinking is to look at the commonly accepted views in the opposite way. For example, if a company wants to grow big and strong, rather than studying how it can grow, it’s better to first examine how companies decline. This sounds a bit counterintuitive, but the results are remarkably good. I recently came across a metaphor that I found especially interesting— with such a filter, you can say no to 90% of things within 10 seconds.

It reminds me of Wu Xiaobo’s *The Great Failure*. This book focuses specifically on cases of business failure, digging deeply into the root causes of failure. Jack Ma has also said something similar: I don’t know how to define success, but I know how to define failure—giving up. There are all kinds of methods for achieving success, but the reasons for failure are actually just a few. This is exactly where the value of reverse thinking lies.

There’s another practical tool called pre-mortem analysis: before taking action, first assume that the project has already failed, and then work backward to find where things might go wrong. This idea is actually consistent with the logic of *the Art of War*—many people think it’s about how to win, but the core is to think about problems with failure as a premise. By studying where mistakes come from, you can truly avoid failure.

What has left the deepest impression on me is a concept proposed by Duan Yongping (the founder of Subor, BBK, and later creator of OPPO and Vivo)—not on the list. He made a list for himself, full of things he will not do: don’t blindly expand your circle of competence, because what people can do is already limited; don’t make 20 decisions in a year—that way you’ll inevitably make mistakes—true value investing is enough if you make only 20 decisions over a lifetime; don’t invest in things you don’t understand; don’t make heavy re-entries in areas you’re unfamiliar with; don’t take shortcuts; don’t believe in “overtaking on a curve.”

These lists of “don’t do” are actually more valuable than lists of “do.” The brilliance of reverse thinking is right here—by negating and excluding, you can see the real opportunities more clearly.