Prediction markets are signaling uncertainty around the US–Iran ceasefire, with traders betting that the truce may be short-lived. On Polymarket, more than $16.4 million has been wagered on when Washington will formally end military operations against Tehran, with April 30 currently carrying the highest probability at around 42%.

Separate bets show skepticism about the ceasefire holding. Traders assign only about 26% odds that the truce lasts through April 21, reflecting concerns that conditions — including reopening the Strait of Hormuz — may not hold. Talks scheduled around April 10–11 in Islamabad are seen as a critical window for determining whether the agreement evolves into something more permanent.

Meanwhile, Kalshi markets show limited confidence in long-term normalization. Bets on the US reopening an embassy in Iran by Jan. 1, 2027 sit near 16% probability, indicating traders expect tensions to persist despite the temporary pause.

Markets initially reacted positively to the ceasefire, with equities rising, oil prices easing and Bitcoin rallying above $70,000. However, prediction market positioning suggests traders view the calm as fragile, with uncertainty likely to drive volatility in the coming weeks.
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