Passing through the Strait of Hormuz

Ask AI · How do crews assess the transit risk of the Strait of Hormuz?

By reporter Zhang Ying

Around 2,000 vessels and 20,000 crew members were trapped in the Strait of Hormuz for more than 26 days—an unprecedented situation in history.

And never has there been a strait like Hormuz in March 2026, one that has driven global oil prices, stock markets, and gold prices to swing up and down dramatically in a short period of time.

In the early hours of February 28, local time, with only faint signals lingering, Zhang Hang steered his ship out of the Strait of Hormuz, and then sent a message to a friend: gold can be sold. A few hours later, war broke out between the United States, Israel, and Iran.

That same night, Liu Yi, serving as the second mate on a liquefied gas carrier, heard a sudden warning broadcast over the ship’s announcements: from the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps—“No vessel is allowed to transit the Strait of Hormuz.”

From that day on, the ship on which Liu Yi served remained stuck at the UAE port of Khorfakkan.

After that, according to International Maritime Organization data, 18 merchant ships were attacked, resulting in the deaths of 7 crew members and 1 port worker. “We’ve become numb,” on March 24, Liu Yi told The Economic Observer. During the more than 20 days the ship was stuck, crew members were repeatedly disturbed by different messages issued by both sides of the war; now, he said, he no longer believes the news—he only believes the current condition of the strait that he can see.

The Strait of Hormuz is known as the “world’s oil valve.” Before this war, an average of about 20 million barrels of oil passed through the strait each day, accounting for around 20% of global oil consumption; about 20% of the world’s liquefied natural gas is also exported from here. At the same time, it is also a supply route: goods such as food and daily necessities imported by Middle Eastern countries rely heavily on passing through this area.

Iran regards its ability to control the strait as a key factor in this war.

But this strait is not only about the U.S. and Israel—it is also about multiple economic entities in Asia. On March 22, Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs posted a statement on social media saying that it had not blocked the strait. Non-hostile vessels may transit after coordinating with Iran regarding communications.

According to S&P Global data, on March 23 and 24, respectively, 5 and 4 ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz. Compared with the pre-war daily transit volume of 100 to 140 ships, the current transit volume is still in a state of extreme contraction.

Several interviewed crew members told The Economic Observer that unless the war ends completely, they will not take the risk of transiting the strait.

Who can get through

“If you disobey, you will be de-stroyed. Alter your course and go back.” (If you do not comply, you will be destroyed. Change your course and return.) On March 24 at noon, the navy of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps issued a warning to a liquefied gas carrier that was about to cross the Strait of Hormuz.

This warning was transmitted over public radio frequencies, covering dozens of nautical miles around the strait, so all ships near the strait could receive the broadcast.

Upon receiving the warning, the liquefied gas carrier immediately reduced speed and accepted inspection. Hours later, the ship successfully passed through the strait, becoming one of the four ships that exited the strait that day.

Liu Yi was familiar with the crew of one of the oil and gas vessels that sailed out of the strait on March 24. As he understood it, that ship had already called at Iranian ports to load cargo before the war; after the outbreak of the war, it was stranded for a long time. The ship faced shortages of food and fresh water and urgently needed supplies.

Before sailing out of the Strait of Hormuz, the ship charterer promised 20 crew members that this risky venture would yield a total subsidy of 100,000 USD.

“Normally, it should follow international standard shipping routes. This time it didn’t. It went along Iran’s coast. It should have needed approval from Iran’s navy in order to pass,” Liu Yi said. When he saw it, the ship’s route was different from usual.

A cargo ship that passed through the Strait of Hormuz on March 23 also took this new route. Qin Yang, who is familiar with the ship’s sailing situation, told The Economic Observer that the route the ship ran was Iran–China. The ship had entered the Strait of Hormuz in mid-February, anchored in waters near the United Arab Emirates, and waited to load cargo for Iran. It had no cargo for a long time. Only in mid-March did it receive notice that it could enter the port to load cargo. After entering the port and loading the cargo, the charterer and the agent (responsible for port entry/exit declarations, logistics services, etc., generally local people) held urgent negotiations. After the agent obtained a security code from the relevant Iranian departments, the ship’s staff, following instructions from the Revolutionary Guard Corps, waited at the designated location and time to receive the transit code; only after receiving the transit code did the ship pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Qin Yang said that even after obtaining the transit code, they still encountered inspections during the transit, and stayed for about 20 to 30 minutes.

As for transit fees, previously media reports suggested they might be 2 million USD, but that claim was denied by Iran’s Embassy in India.

As reported by Xinhua News Agency on March 26, Iran’s parliament is drafting a bill on charging transit fees for ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz.

Both Liu Yi and Qin Yang believe that currently, the most likely ships to pass through the strait are those loading cargo in Iran. However, many of the vessels stranded both inside and outside the strait transport oil, LNG, and other cargoes loaded in other Middle Eastern countries, so the risk of being attacked remains high.

Liu Yi said he would absolutely not agree to his ship transiting the Strait of Hormuz while the war is ongoing. Although the aforementioned ship ultimately succeeded in passing through, all the crew members were frightened. He explained that the crew dared to take the risk not only because of factors such as food shortages and subsidies, but also because they needed to consider the risk of being attacked by the U.S. and Israel while long-term moored at Iranian ports.

Several interviewees told The Economic Observer that under the current circumstances, when a ship leaves or enters the Strait of Hormuz, all crew members on board must vote and agree.

There are alternate routes, but they’re expensive

After the Strait of Hormuz was brought under control, the ports inside the strait were almost shut down. For people in the Middle East, the urgent problem is not only that exporting oil and gas is difficult, but also that importing food is difficult. In some Middle Eastern countries, 80% to 90% of the grain needs to be purchased from the international market.

The ship Zhang Hang works on has long been responsible for shipping food such as fruits and vegetables and meat to places like the United Arab Emirates and Iraq in cold-chain format. Before the war, each voyage would fill more than 4,000 containers. Now it can only load 300-plus containers.

Many cargo owners are worried about losses and no longer ship goods. “Now, a lot of freight destined for Dubai has stopped. Only a few big companies are hauling it; small companies have basically shut down. The transportation cost is certainly much higher than before.” Zhang Hang said. Currently, transportation prices are more than four times those before the war.

After food supplies declined, prices rose. In some ports, bottled spring water that used to cost 2.5 USD per case is now up to 30 USD per case. From late February to mid-March, the UAE Ministry of Economy and Tourism received nearly 2,000 consumer complaints related to increases in food prices.

Before the war, Zhang Hang’s sailing route was: depart from Mundra and Nawashiva in India, load cargo, after sailing for 3 days enter the Strait of Hormuz, reach the UAE’s Jebel Ali Port for the first round of unloading, then go to an Iraqi port for the second round of unloading; after unloading, turn back, exit the Strait of Hormuz, and return to India.

Among them, Jebel Ali Port is the busiest port in the Middle East, and an international trade transshipment hub connecting Asia, Europe, and Africa. After the war, ships outside the strait could no longer enter that port, and the port was also attacked. Zhang Hang’s ship had to choose alternate routes. “On March 4, we loaded cargo in India and were supposed to return to Jebel Ali, but on the way we heard that they were already fighting. We couldn’t rely on reaching Jebel Ali, so we slowed down and drifted without knowing where to go. At the time, many ships called agents—the agent lines were basically overloaded. We couldn’t keep up. In effect, all routes were interrupted, and Jebel Ali Port was also bombed,” Zhang Hang recalled.

The alternate route Zhang Hang chose refers to arriving from overseas at Fujairah Port in the UAE; the port is located 90 nautical miles outside the Strait of Hormuz. After the cargo arrives at the port, it is transported overland to Jebel Ali Port.

On March 25, COSCO Shipping Line issued a shipping bulletin indicating that starting immediately, it will resume new bookings for shipments from the Far East to the Middle East for the following countries (standard/general boxes), including the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, and Iraq.

Zhang Hang believes that under the current conditions of the Strait of Hormuz, the vast majority of cargo ships can only take alternate routes. Besides the route he took, this includes ports in Oman outside the strait and ports in Saudi Arabia along the Red Sea, among others; but all alternate routes require switching to land transport after arrival at port in order to enter the Persian Gulf.

Alternate routes are also subject to many restrictions. Zhang Hang’s ship berthed at Fujairah on the evening of March 6. When it was 5 to 6 nautical miles away from the port, Zhang Hang saw port fires rising dozens of meters high. At the time, two large crude oil storage tanks at Fujairah were hit by drones. “It was still quite scary. On the third day, missiles came again. This time they didn’t hit the oil tanks, but we could see smoke and dust rising from the ground, about a dozen meters high. It was only two or three hundred meters from our ship,” Zhang Hang recalled. The container unloading terminal at Fujairah is a small terminal, with only two gantry cranes and 5 transfer trucks. In addition, due to the impact of the war, the unloading process was sometimes interrupted; it took 5 days to complete. In other ports, it would never exceed 24 hours. Moreover, during cold-chain unloading at Fujairah, there is also the problem of insufficient power outlets.

Shipping data shows that currently the daily volume of oil loaded for export from Yanbu Port on the Red Sea in Saudi Arabia has exceeded 4 million barrels. Under Saudi Arabia’s plan, the export target for the alternative route is 5 million barrels per day, which is equivalent to 70% of the country’s pre-war export volume. Iraq, the Middle East’s second-largest oil exporter, had almost all of its oil exports requiring passage through the Strait of Hormuz before the war. After the strait was sealed, Iraq tried to push through northern pipelines, exporting 250,000 barrels per day, equivalent to 7% of the country’s total daily export volume before the war.

LNG faces even more serious problems—there are currently almost no alternate routes.

Information fog

Under what conditions would people feel reassured about passing through the Strait of Hormuz? This is a question all ships running Middle East routes are thinking about.

Since the outbreak of the war, the United States has released a number of assurances about ensuring safe passage. On March 4, U.S. President Trump announced that the U.S. would ensure that energy transportation in the Persian Gulf remains smooth by providing insurance guarantees and even dispatching naval escorts. On March 6, the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation and the U.S. Treasury Department jointly announced the launch of a 20 billion USD maritime reinsurance plan.

Iran’s narrative is also changing. On March 2, Brigadier General Ebrahim Jabari of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said: “Not a drop of oil will be allowed to flow out of this region; oil prices will reach 200 USD per barrel within the next few days.” On March 22, Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said that Iran allows non-hostile vessels to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, but it requires coordination with Iran on security matters and making relevant arrangements.

These claims have not dispelled the crews’ doubts.

The insurance plan covers ships and cargo only; crew members on board are not willing to take the risk of crossing the strait. The images of ships being destroyed still linger in their minds. In addition, the U.S.-launched insurance plan will not cover ships from all countries.

“This ship is worth at least more than 100 million (USD). The insurance company won’t pay (for losses caused by war),” Zhang Hang explained. Previously, this ship had transported food from the United Nations World Food Programme to support Somalia; it was humanitarian assistance. Even so, if the ship is attacked by armed forces, the insurance company still won’t pay.

After Iran announced the new rules, Zhang Hang’s company had discussed whether to re-run the Strait of Hormuz. The conclusion was no. “Our company has more than 200 ships, and none of them did that. No one can guarantee that if you pay the money, you will definitely get out. Even if you sail through Iran’s territorial waters, you’ll still feel that it’s not entirely safe.”

Zhang Hang said that for the vast majority of cargo ships, only after the war truly ends and they observe for a while will they resume transit.

As for when the war will end and whether there will be a temporary ceasefire, the U.S., Israel, and Iran have had different statements in the past two weeks. “One says east, one says west. Trump says there’s a ceasefire, but we see missiles still flying overhead,” Liu Yi said. Crew members don’t believe what politicians say; they only believe what they see in the strait.

The fog of war is also testing investors around the world.

On March 21, Trump posted on social media, demanding that Iran open the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours, or else it would strike Iran’s “various power plants” and destroy them. That day, Brent oil prices climbed to 114 USD.

On March 23, Trump said the U.S. and Iran had good dialogue and that it would postpone its strike by 5 days. Brent oil prices then fell sharply to below 100 USD.

Changes in oil prices affect not only investors heavily positioned in oil-and-gas stocks and funds, but also indirectly impact other retail investors and gold investors.

Many investors who were confused by war-related information flooded into the social media comment sections of the crew members: “If the strait is open, please tell us in advance.” “When will it be passable? My gold is stuck.” “You’re my only connection in the Strait of Hormuz”… Some crew members began updating port conditions every day in response.

Broken calm

Almost all crew members hope the war will end and that the Strait of Hormuz will return to normal transit.

Liu Yi has been to many ports in the Middle East and has docked in Dubai and Iranian ports. His deepest impression here is the heat. In summer, the highest temperature can reach 50 degrees. Hills without trees made him think of the Flaming Mountains. Iran’s agent was very welcoming. He once drove Liu Yi around the city to sightsee, and Liu Yi found that Iran’s infrastructure was good—roads were wide—but it lacked post-maintenance. “In the past, I thought this place was quite lively and also very peaceful.” Before the war, Zhang Hang had discussed the possibility of war with port workers who had worked here for years. The workers basically all replied “Idon’tcare (I don’t care),” and “Noproblem (No problem),” and everyone believed it wouldn’t break out; even if it did, they thought it would end like the Israel–Iran conflict in 2025—fighting for more than ten days and then stopping.

The war disrupted everyday life. On February 28, the ship Liu Yi was on was preparing to enter the Strait of Hormuz. That evening the sunset was beautiful, and the crew members were fishing on the ship. Suddenly, a radio broadcast came through that shocked everyone: the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced that no vessel may pass through the Strait of Hormuz.

After that, the ship on which Liu Yi served remained stranded at the UAE port of Khorfakkan. Compared with ships stranded outside the port, they were luckier because inside the port they had advantages in terms of signals and food and supply. Outside the port, ships were almost cut off from connectivity; they could only call nearby ships over public radio, and the crew members couldn’t contact their families back home. With Liu Yi’s help, several Chinese crew members were able to report that they were safe to their families.

At present, on the ship where Liu Yi served, multiple crew contracts are nearing expiration, but no information has yet arrived about crew rotations. “Leaving from the local area first you need to get to Dubai airport, and then from Dubai to where we are. Some ships have already rotated crews because wages have skyrocketed, so some crew members may be willing to come over too.”

Zhang Hang described the condition of many ships outside ports as “hard drifting.” “However many days the war has lasted, they’ve been drifting for however many days. Water and food are running out.” From March 23 to March 25, rare rain fell near the Strait of Hormuz, but the rainfall was very light, not enough to store.

Zhang Hang’s ship also faced a shortage of fresh water. Before the war, considering water quality, they usually replenished fresh water at Middle Eastern ports. After unloading cargo at Fujairah Port on March 11, Fujairah had no fresh water services, so they could not be replenished. After that, because they worried about the risk of being bombed, the ship left port, drifted for 100 nautical miles over 7 days, and finally had to choose to return to India for resupply due to lack of water. The crew worried about the water quality in India. “We hope the war ends as soon as possible. We worry about fresh water every day,” Zhang Hang said.

On March 27, the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps issued its latest statement saying that the Strait of Hormuz has been closed.

(At the request of the interviewees, Zhang Hang, Liu Yi, and Qin Yang in the article are pseudonyms.)