Breaking! Iran launches multiple rounds of missile attacks on Israel, "resulting in significant casualties"! Trump sets conditions for a ceasefire! International oil prices fall

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Source: Futures Daily

Good morning. Let’s start by looking at the latest developments.

Israel faces its largest-scale missile attack since the outbreak of war

According to CCTV News, in the evening of April 1 local time, Israel’s military once again announced that air defense alerts had been lifted. Israeli media statistics show that in just the past hour, Iran’s missile attack on Israel was the most concentrated one since the war began on February 28.

Media reports cited sources in Iran’s military as saying that the number of missiles Iran launched that day increased significantly compared with the previous two days—about double the scale of a single day in the previous two days. Iran’s strike coverage included targets related to Israel, northern Iraq, and multiple U.S. military bases in the region.

Israel’s military, however, said it was carrying out large-scale airstrikes on targets inside Iran. The Israeli side said that the main targets of the latest round of large-scale airstrikes were “dozens of pieces of infrastructure affiliated with the Iranian government” in central Tehran, the Iranian capital.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps: Coverage spans all of Israel; significant personnel casualties have been caused

According to CCTV News, in the afternoon of April 1 local time, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps issued a statement. During “Operation Wave 89” of “True Commitment-4,” Iran’s armed forces coordinated with the “Resistance Front” to carry out strikes on U.S. and Israeli targets in the region.

The statement said the operation involved more than 100 heavy missiles, attack drones, and 200 rockets. The strike coverage spanned the whole of Israel from north to south.

The statement noted that, in this joint operation, strikes were carried out in places such as Eilat, Tel Aviv, and Bnei Brak in Israel, targeting Israeli military targets and areas where relevant personnel were concentrated. It also said that, according to local news sources, “significant personnel casualties” had been caused.

Iran says Trump’s social media statement is entirely baseless

CCTV News cited a report from Iran’s state television on April 1 as saying that Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghaei stated that a so-called statement by U.S. President Trump earlier on social media—about “the Iranian new regime’s president requesting a ceasefire”—is entirely fabricated misinformation.

Trump’s ceasefire conditions: Must meet “specific requirements” from the U.S. side

According to CCTV News, on April 1 U.S. President Trump said the United States would “quite quickly” end its military action against Iran. However, if necessary, it may continue attacking Iran using a “targeted strike” approach as well.

Trump said that U.S. military actions had made Iran “unable to obtain nuclear weapons,” and said that after withdrawal, if the situation changes, the United States might still re-enter.

Some sources said that U.S. President Trump had instructed Vice President Vance to privately convey information to the Iranian side: as long as “specific requirements” such as reopening the Strait of Hormuz are met, he is open to a ceasefire.

All three major U.S. stock indexes closed higher as international oil prices and the U.S. dollar index fell

By the close of trading this morning, the Nasdaq rose 1.16%, the Dow rose 0.48%, and the S&P 500 index rose 0.72%. Among热门中概股, most closed higher. The leader index for Livelymore’s China-concept stocks rose 0.65%. Li Auto rose more than 3%, while NIO and XPeng Motors and iQIYI all rose more than 2%. Bilibili rose more than 1%.

International oil prices fell on April 1. By the close, the front-month WTI crude oil futures contract fell 2.44%, and the front-month Brent crude oil futures contract fell 3.59%.

The U.S. dollar index fell on April 1. The U.S. dollar index, which measures the dollar against six major currencies, fell 0.32% that day, closing at 99.648 in the late-session close in the FX market.

Analysts: Technology growth sectors may enter a valuation rebound window

On April 1, most of the major Asia-Pacific stock indexes showed strong performance. Among them, Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 5.24%, its biggest single-day gain since April 10, 2025. South Korea’s composite index surged 8.44%, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 rose 2.24%.

China A-shares rose across the board. By the close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.46%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.7%, the ChiNext index rose 1.96%, and the STAR Market Composite Index rose 3.44%. Total trading volume on the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing three exchanges was about 2.03 trillion yuan, up about 19 billion yuan from the previous day.

Some analysts said that this month’s China A-share market is entering a dense period of annual report and first-quarter report releases. As the market moves into the earnings verification window, fund preferences are undergoing subtle changes: the heat of theme-driven speculation cools down, and targets with stronger earnings certainty attract attention.

Zhang Qing, an index futures researcher at Huizhong Futures, analyzed that, based on market patterns from the past 10 years, the pricing weight of the April earnings factor is expected to rise significantly. Since late March, the excess returns of individual stocks with earnings pre-growth have been noticeably amplified. Stocks whose net profit year over year doubled have attracted capital interest, while theme stocks face the dual pressure of both valuation and earnings. Data show that from March 23 to 30, the average rise of stocks with earnings pre-growth of more than 100% was 12.7%, significantly outperforming the broader market.

“In a market environment of competition among existing players, capital will accelerate its shift toward targets with stronger earnings certainty,” Zhang Qing said. On the macro level, Zhang added, the Middle East geopolitical conflict remains a core external variable affecting global capital markets. Combined with cooling expectations for Fed rate cuts, market uncertainty is relatively high, further strengthening capital’s pursuit of certainty.

Looking at the semiconductor and computing power sectors, Zhang Qing believes these two sectors have formed a clear “valuation floor + earnings floor.” “In the near term, the scale of net institutional purchases of earnings pre-growth targets exceeded 8 billion yuan. The ability of the full industrial chain of computing power sectors both domestically and overseas to deliver earnings has been validated. Earnings guidance from leading companies has continued to exceed expectations. The high level of business conditions in the memory-chip industry continues, and mainstream memory manufacturers’ net profit margins are expected to rise to 45%. Benefiting from accelerating domestic substitution, orders for semiconductor materials companies are ‘maxed out,’ providing sustained earnings support. After the pullback in March, the match between the valuation of core targets and their earnings growth rates has improved significantly,” she said.

Zhou Yang, a researcher for index futures at Huishang Futures, also holds a similar view. He said that sectors such as semiconductors and computing power are not simply theme-driven speculation sectors; rather, they are sectors whose logic has been jointly validated by policy direction, the concentrated release of demand for artificial intelligence, and the acceleration of domestic substitution. In 2025, some companies in the above sectors have achieved rapid growth in operating revenue. After this round of adjustments, the pressure from high valuations has been effectively absorbed, and support from the earnings bottom is gradually emerging.

When talking about the market style in April, Zhang Qing believes the dividends strategy still has allocation value in the short term and can be used to build a baseline position. In mid-April, capital is expected to switch toward technology growth sectors.

“Early April is a period when listed companies concentrate their earnings disclosures. In the context of the Middle East geopolitical conflict not ending and repeated fluctuations in expectations for Fed rate cuts, market risk appetite is low.” Zhang Qing said that high-dividend dividend assets have defensive characteristics and can serve as a safe haven for capital. In mid-to-late April, under support from earnings delivery, falling valuations, and industrial policy, technology growth sectors are expected to restart an upward trend. The core tracks with strong certainty for high revenue growth—such as computing power, memory, and semiconductor equipment—are also supported. In addition, multiple computing-power conferences will be held in April, which are expected to attract incremental capital and drive the switch in market style.

“From mid-March onward, escalating Middle East geopolitical conflicts led to the release of systemic risks across global capital markets. While A-shares faced pressure in parallel, they have shown strong resilience. At present, there is still uncertainty in the Middle East situation, but both the Iran and U.S. sides have released signals for negotiations, and market risk appetite has improved. Based on this, the defensive allocation value of the dividends strategy still exists. Meanwhile, AI computing power and technology growth sectors such as semiconductors may enter a valuation rebound window,” Zhou Yang said.

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