Hexun Investment Advisor Liu Changsong: The index needs to first break above the May moving average before a consolidation pattern will appear.

On April 8, Hexun Securities Investment Advisory analyst Liu Changsong said that the current market position has not been set yet, so there’s no need to act in a hurry. You can let the price action develop further. From a technical perspective, the index needs to first move above the 5-day moving average, and only then will a consolidation structure appear. Moreover, this consolidation is expected to be a rotation-and-pull-up-for-latecomers type of rebound.

Today’s index rose significantly, but many individual stocks did not move up in sync. The reason is that the market needs to first build an upside trading platform with the index, and then individual stocks will follow with rotation and catch-up gains. Such catch-up phases in individual stocks are often accompanied by consolidation. Therefore, from the current position upward, you can first observe how the market performs. After the index moves above the 5-day moving average, focus on whether the next few trading days can hold above or lose the 5-day line. As long as the index remains above the 5-day moving average, there’s no need to pay too much attention to index fluctuations; instead, you should actively look for investment directions, because at this time the market offers opportunities for rotation and catch-up gains.

Judging from today’s full-day trading in A-shares, it is in line with expectations. Some people believe today’s market was driven by stimulus from the news. However, Liu Changsong previously emphasized that April 20 is an important milestone. Based on the assumption that the suspension in the overseas market for 10 days ends before the next session, stopping 10 days on the 8th corresponds to April 18. April 18 is a Saturday, so it rolls forward to Monday, which is April 20. This judgment is based on technical analysis of global stock markets, and global fund flows can also provide some clues. From today’s A-share structural price action, the performance is good. Last week, he pointed out that the market would bottom out this week, and today it showed an upside strong assault with a long bullish candle structure.

At present, the Shanghai Composite Index has not yet moved above the 5-day moving average. It will inevitably cross above it afterward. After crossing, the market will enter a pressure zone, and pressure will be absorbed through consolidation. As long as, during a consolidation pullback, the index remains above the 5-day moving average, you can look for investment opportunities. Comparing the Shenzhen market, the STAR Market, and the ChiNext Board index: the Shenzhen and ChiNext have already crossed above the 5-day moving average. The STAR Market has not yet crossed above the 55-day moving average, but based on the overall market structure, the sectors that have not yet crossed above the 5-day moving average will likely follow later as well.

From the perspective of the smaller structure, at the daily level there is a “double golden” formation. Above the 5-day moving average, the market is expected to consolidate and move higher. If tomorrow’s index continues to push up, you can wait for a pullback to do bargain buying at lower levels. Because after today’s big rally, if tomorrow continues to push up and goes above 4000 points, it will deviate further from the 5-day moving average. But considering that many individual stocks have not yet risen, you cannot judge solely based on the index logic. Looking at today’s number of advancers versus decliners, the market performance is strong: more than 5100 individual stocks are already up. The ChiNext index is up more than 6%, and the STAR 50 index is up more than 5%.

(责任编辑：崔晨 HX015)

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