Hot event early participation: How to join Polymarket event predictions with one click on Gate?

In the crypto world of 2026, the narrative is quietly shifting. When traditional spot and futures trading enters a game of trading volume that has already stabilized, prediction markets—using their unique event-driven logic—are becoming a new engine for attracting both traffic and capital. Global prediction market monthly trading volume has already surpassed $200 billion, jumping from about $12 billion at the start of 2025 to more than $200 billion in January 2026. As of April 7, the combined trading volume of Kalshi and Polymarket has reached $52.7 billion, of which Polymarket contributes $24.3 billion. In March alone, Polymarket delivered a nominal trading volume of $10.6 billion, with a month-over-month growth rate of 33.1%.

Meanwhile, the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), completed a $600 million investment in Polymarket in March, signaling that institutional confidence in crypto-native prediction markets is rapidly heating up. For users who want to ride this wave of “event trading,” the biggest obstacle in the past was a cumbersome workflow—requiring separate Web3 wallet registration, cross-chain transfers into USDC, paying Gas fees, and more. But now, Gate has taken the lead in breaking through this barrier. As the world’s first centralized exchange (CEX) integrated with Polymarket, Gate allows users to participate in prediction trading for global trending hot events with a single click directly within a familiar exchange environment.

What is Polymarket?

Polymarket is currently the world’s largest decentralized prediction market platform, built on the Polygon blockchain. It allows users to trade outcomes of real-world events—ranging from geopolitical conflicts, crypto currency price trends, to sports event results and political elections—almost any controversial event can find a corresponding prediction contract on the platform.

Unlike the “opinions” of traditional polls or analysts, the probabilities on Polymarket are determined through a real-money contest. Get it right and you profit; get it wrong and you directly incur a loss of capital. This mechanism naturally improves prediction accuracy. In fact, the U.S. Federal Reserve has confirmed in a research report that prediction markets perform “significantly better than Bloomberg consensus expectations.”

Why participate in Polymarket on Gate?

Despite Polymarket’s rapid growth, its native onboarding threshold has long constrained explosive user growth. Gate’s integration precisely addresses this pain point, bringing three core advantages to more than 51 million users:

Seamless direct access to funds. Users no longer need to manage complex seed phrases or perform cross-chain bridging; they can directly use USDT in their Gate exchange account to participate in prediction trading, with no additional Gas fees. This experience lowers the participation threshold for prediction markets to the same level as spot trading.

Fusion of dual trading modes. Gate has innovatively introduced a dual-architecture of “Prediction Mode + Trading Mode.” The Prediction Mode interface is user-friendly, intuitively showing “Yes/No” probabilities and odds, making it suitable for beginners to get started quickly. The Trading Mode provides an order book, candlestick charts, market depth, and limit/market orders to meet the strategy needs of professional traders.

Simplified settlement mechanism. After an event is settled, the winning returns are automatically converted into a stablecoin at a 1:1 ratio and transferred to the spot account, removing the waiting period and the slippage risk of on-chain settlement—delivering “what you see is what you get.”

Full step-by-step guide to participate in Polymarket with one click on Gate

Step 1: Update your App version. Please update the Gate App to v8.12.5 or above first, as this is the minimum version requirement for using the Polymarket integration feature.

Step 2: Log in and enter the prediction market. After opening the App, log in with your Gate account. On the home page, tap the “Alpha” entry to enter the Polymarket section and browse all kinds of currently open prediction events.

Step 3: Choose an event and place an order. After entering a specific event, choose “Yes” or “No” based on your judgment, enter the number of shares you want to buy, and confirm to complete the trade. The platform displays the market expectation intuitively in the form of probabilities—when the Yes price for an event is 0.65, it means the market broadly believes that the event has about a 65% chance of happening.

Step 4: Wait for settlement and claim rewards. When the prediction event ends, the platform will settle according to the final result. If your prediction is correct, the corresponding positions will receive the related returns. The overall process is similar to information judgment + trading decision-making, with a low operational barrier.

Latest hot prediction topics (as of April 9)

U.S.-Iran ceasefire—Polymarket’s biggest geopolitical event

On April 7, U.S. President Donald Trump announced a two-week ceasefire agreement with Iran. However, what draws the most attention is the abnormal trading revealed by on-chain data. According to a report from the Associated Press, in the hours before the ceasefire announcement, a batch of newly created accounts appeared on Polymarket, placing precise bets that “a ceasefire would be reached.” At least 50 wallets made large “Yes” direction wagers, and many accounts had never placed bets before. An account created on the morning of April 7 invested about $72,000 and ultimately earned about $200,000. Another account created 12 minutes before Trump’s post placed a bet of $31,900 on the ceasefire, estimated to have earned about $48,500. A report by Bloomberg shows that the total amount of bets related to the ceasefire on Polymarket exceeded $170 million, making it one of the largest geopolitical betting events in the platform’s history.

Meanwhile, other contracts related to Iran remain actively traded. Regarding the probability of “Trump announcing the end of military operations before April 15,” it has fallen to 18%, but the probability of announcing it before April 30 has quickly risen to 59%. The probability of ending operations before May 31 is 74%, and further spiked to 86% before June 30. These data clearly reflect real-time changes in the market’s expectations for the conflict’s trajectory.

Trump tariffs—A decision from the Supreme Court is approaching

Polymarket traders are closely watching the U.S. Supreme Court’s ruling on Trump’s tariff policy. At present, the market believes the probability that the Supreme Court will support Trump’s tariffs is about 30%. As details from the high court’s hearings continue to update, traders have significantly reduced the probability they believe the court will back Trump’s tariffs. On Kalshi, the probability that tariffs will win has fallen even further to 29%, and Polymarket shows a similar trend, indicating that traders’ confidence is continuing to decline.

U.S. Federal Reserve rates—Probability of rate cuts drops sharply

After geopolitical tensions pushed up energy prices, Polymarket’s 2026 probability of 0 Federal Reserve rate cuts has surpassed 39%, surging 24% in the short term. The probability of 3 rate cuts is only 9%, down 28% in the short term. At the same time, the market is repricing the risk of rate hikes—on Polymarket, the probability of the Federal Reserve raising rates is 21%. These data indicate that inflation expectations are reshaping market judgments about the path of monetary policy.

Bitcoin price—Market disagreement is significant

In crypto-exclusive prediction markets, the direction of Bitcoin’s price is always a focus for traders. Currently, Polymarket traders believe the probability that Bitcoin will return to $100,000 in 2026 is about 35%, while there is a 38% probability that it will fall all the way to $40,000. The market expects that for most of 2026, Bitcoin will trade in a range between $55,000 and $80,000. In addition, the market sets the probability that Dogecoin reaches $0.10 before May 1 at 62%.

Summary

The rise of prediction markets signifies that crypto trading is shifting from being price-driven to being event-driven. This not only changes the form of trading, but also redefines the function of the market. As the world’s first centralized exchange integrated with Polymarket, Gate allows users to participate in prediction trading for global trending hot events with one click in a familiar exchange environment, without having to face complex barriers such as Web3 wallet setup or on-chain Gas fees.

Whether it’s the currently most watched Polymarket contracts related to the U.S.-Iran ceasefire, the Trump tariffs ruling, the Federal Reserve rates outlook, or predictions of Bitcoin’s price, Gate has already integrated these trending events into the “Alpha” section. Users only need to update the App to v8.12.5 or above to begin experiencing it. Please note that although prediction markets provide a new way to make information-based judgments and trading decisions, it is still recommended that you complete basic analysis and risk assessment before participating to improve prediction accuracy.