Under the current international situation, $BTC faces short-term pressure: Middle Eastern geopolitical conflicts and the Fed's rate cut expectations repeatedly disturb the market, combined with tightening regulations and macro liquidity contraction. Bitcoin surged then fell back to $70,780. The 4-hour MACD shows bearish divergence, and the moving averages are turning downward, indicating short-term correction pressure; however, in the long term, the halving cycle, institutional holdings, and safe-haven demand still support its value. Caution is needed regarding geopolitical and policy black swan events.