#Gate广场四月发帖挑战 Before the CPI release (before 4.10), a comprehensive breakdown of the core news in the crypto world that directly impacts your judgment of the CPI market trend.

1. Macroeconomics and the Federal Reserve (determining CPI expectations)

• March Non-Farm Payrolls Surpass Expectations (4.5)

◦ +178k jobs (expected 150k), strong employment

◦ Market interpretation: Economy not weak → Inflation likely to rebound → Rate cuts more difficult

◦ Crypto: Rate cut expectations significantly cooled, almost zero rate cuts for the year

• CME Interest Rate Futures (4.8)

◦ Maintaining 3.50%–3.75% in April: 98.4% probability

◦ Rate cut in June: only 1.8%

◦ Conclusion: High interest rates will persist longer, bearish for crypto

• Federal Reserve Minutes (4.9 2:00)

◦ Tone: Hawkish, emphasizing “inflation is not yet stable, not rushing to cut rates”

◦ Impact: Pre-setting CPI tone—high data not surprising, low data exceeding expectations

• Middle East Ceasefire (4.7)

◦ Oil prices plummeted over 15%

◦ Short-term easing of inflation pressure, but CPI reflects with a lag

◦ Sentiment: Risk appetite rebounds, BTC surges to 72.7k

2. Key internal news in the crypto world

• BTC Spot ETF Funds

◦ Net inflow of about 50k BTC in March (record high)

◦ Institutional support, but short-term gains are sold off if momentum stalls

◦ Support levels: 68k–70k

• Regulatory positive news (4.6)

◦ US Senate: Bans Federal Reserve CBDC until 2030

◦ “Clarity Act” review in mid-April: BTC/ETH classified as commodities

◦ Long-term positive, short-term sentiment boost

• Whales and Liquidations

◦ Significant whale selling above 70k

◦ Multiple pump attempts followed by short-squeeze liquidations (over 120k traders)

◦ Market: prone to sharp rises and falls, high volatility

3. Market consensus before CPI release (4.10 20:30)

• Market consensus (4.8)

◦ Overall CPI YoY: 2.4% → 3.1% (jump)

◦ Core CPI YoY: 3.7% → 3.4% (slight decline)

• Market pricing

◦ Already priced in: higher CPI, delayed rate cuts

◦ Key: whether it exceeds expectations (>3.3%)

4. Three scenarios and their impact on the crypto market (short-term)

• Scenario 1: CPI exceeds expectations (>3.3%, bearish)

◦ Reaction: BTC drops sharply 3%–6%

◦ Support: 68k–69k (ETF buying)

◦ Altcoins broadly down 5%–10%

• Scenario 2: Meets expectations (3.0%–3.3%, neutral)

◦ Reaction: Volatility, slight dip then rebound

◦ Range: 69k–72k

◦ Funds wait and see, focus on PCE (4.30)

• Scenario 3: Below expectations (<2.9%, bullish)

◦ Reaction: Violent surge 4%–8%

◦ Target: 73k–75k

◦ Rate cut expectations return, broad rally

5. Trading points (before and after CPI)

• Before CPI (4.9–4.10)

◦ Bearish: Reduce positions at high levels, lower leverage

◦ Mainly observe, avoid chasing highs

• After CPI

◦ Exceeds expectations: rebound and short, target 68k

◦ Meets expectations: sell high, buy low

◦ Below expectations: retest for longs, target 73k+