On the first day of the temporary ceasefire taking effect, the Israeli forces bombed even harder than before, and Iran simply shut the door—now the Strait of Hormuz still won’t let ships through. This playbook is exactly the same as last Monday: ceasefire news → oil prices fall → crypto rises → turn around and keep fighting → oil prices rise → crypto falls. The capital markets have already been trained to react reflexively, but this time Iran says, “the negotiating foundation has been destroyed,” and whether the meeting on the 11th can even take place is a question. It’s not so easy to untie this knot in the Middle East; as long as the strait keeps rattling around, oil prices can’t come down—if oil prices don’t fall, the Fed rate cut hangs in the balance. The lifeline of crypto isn’t only in the crypto world; it’s in Tehran.‍