More than 4,400 stocks declined, while bank stocks defied the trend and strengthened! What’s the outlook for the future?

Today, the A-shares market fluctuated and adjusted after a choppy session. Technology growth stocks pulled back more sharply. Both the ChiNext Index and the STAR Market Composite Index fell by more than 2%, and the Shanghai Composite Index once again dropped below 3,900 points. More than 4,400 individual stocks declined, while trading value was modestly higher, rising to 2 trillion yuan.

On the trading front, sectors such as sports, forestry, rail transit equipment, and banks were relatively active. Sectors including coal, planting-related agriculture, wind power equipment, and industrial gases led the declines.

Wind’s real-time monitoring data shows that the medical and biological sector received net inflows of more than 3.4 billion yuan from main fund flows; mechanical equipment received net inflows of more than 2.4 billion yuan; banks received net inflows of more than 2.1 billion yuan; and autos saw net inflows of more than 1.3 billion yuan. Light industry manufacturing and agriculture/forestry/animal husbandry/fisheries also recorded net inflows of more than 100 million yuan each. Building materials and beauty and personal care both continued to receive net inflows for 6 consecutive trading days. Meanwhile, the electronics sector saw net outflows from main fund flows of more than 14.0 billion yuan, power equipment recorded net outflows of more than 8.4 billion yuan, and non-ferrous metals had net outflows of more than 4.5 billion yuan.

As for individual stocks, Pingtan Development received net inflows of more than 2.1 billion yuan from main fund flows. Shenjian Co., Ltd. received net inflows of more than 2.0 billion yuan. Juli Cable (rights protection) received net inflows of more than 1.1 billion yuan, and Zengsheng Technology received net inflows of more than 1.0 billion yuan.

In terms of market hot spots, bank stocks strengthened against the trend today, with all four major state-owned banks increasing volume to support the market. Bank of China rose 3.53%, posting its largest gain within the year; its share price also hit a new intra-year high, and trading volume surged by more than 1 times versus yesterday. Agricultural Bank of China opened higher and kept climbing, jumping 3.24%; China Construction Bank moved close to its all-time high (adjusted for dividends and splits), rising by more than 12% since March; and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China also rose by more than 10% in March.

Agricultural Bank of China has released its 2025 annual report and a dividend proposal: net profit of 291 billion yuan, and a plan of 10 shares for 1.3 yuan (including tax). Combined with the interim dividend of 10 shares for 1.195 yuan, its dividend yield is as high as 3.72%, far above the interest rate on 1-year bank deposits. Bank of China also released its performance and dividend proposal, with a dividend yield of 3.86%.

Looking ahead, Changjiang Securities said that as the April earnings-report disclosure season approaches, earnings drivers may become the core force leading to market differentiation. In terms of strategy, it focuses on three major themes: first, energy security—watch for a shift upward in the price center of gravity of traditional energy such as coal and petrochemicals under potential restocking demand, as well as new-energy directions driven by substitution demand; second, the technology theme—continue to focus on the favorable cycle main line of AI infrastructure, including areas such as power, memory/storage, and computing power, including optical modules, storage, and semiconductor equipment; third, pay attention to rebounds in previously severely undervalued names, such as precious metals and commercial aerospace.

Guosen Securities believes that in April, more real-world issues are expected to gradually surface. The actual impact of high oil prices on supply chains and demand also needs further data validation. Asset pricing may face a shift from prior expectations toward reality, and capacity constraints caused by tight energy supplies may be reflected in pricing further. The market is expected to remain in a window period dominated by consolidation with amplified volatility. It still needs to wait for trading to dull conflict expectations and for volatility to gradually converge. Priority should be given to banks and power-related stocks with relatively more certainty in their profitability models and dividend returns.

Editor: Chen Lixiang

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