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๐ฅBitunix Analyst: The Federal Reserve meeting minutes show that inflation stickiness and policy lag resonate, and the market is entering a phase of extended interest rate hike pricing.
Although the US and Iran have reached a phased ceasefire, it has not returned to a stable equilibrium but shifted to a more complex structureโsupply shocks have not fully dissipated, yet demand resilience remains, leading to a prolonged period of high inflation. Fed spokesperson Nick Timiraos explained that the signals released essentially point to the same core: the end of the war has not reduced policy difficulty; instead, it has pushed the Fed into a middle ground where easing is impossible and further tightening is also challenging.
From a policy perspective, the FOMC minutes have explicitly rejected the narrative that war is a trigger for rate cuts. The real constraints on policy are three structural factors: delayed tariff transmission, energy prices permeating core inflation, and the re-anchoring of long-term high inflation expectationsโฆ
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