#Gate广场四月发帖挑战 The Iran-U.S. ceasefire breaks down, regional conflicts escalate, strengthening the scarcity narrative of BTC, mainstream coins fluctuate in a game of volatility, and altcoins weaken across the board, falling back to gains.

#Gate广场四月发帖挑战 The ceasefire between the US and Iran has broken down, regional conflicts are escalating, Bitcoin scarcity narrative is strengthening, mainstream coins are oscillating and trading sideways, and altcoins are weakening across the board, falling back after gains.

Fundamentals:
1. The US-Iran ceasefire has collapsed, and conflicts in the Middle East have fully escalated, reigniting geopolitical fears.
The two-week temporary ceasefire reached in the early hours of April 8 was declared broken on the same day. Israel ignored the agreement and launched large-scale airstrikes in Lebanon.
Iran immediately retaliated: reopening the Strait of Hormuz, shooting down an Israeli drone, and suspending negotiations in Islamabad.
The US’s stance remains vague, tacitly allowing Israeli actions, with Trump threatening to resume strikes.
The Middle East is returning to the brink of full-scale conflict, risk aversion sentiment has surged sharply, crude oil rebounded over 2.5%, gold prices rose back above $4700, and crypto assets are under renewed pressure.

2. A New York Times investigation suggests that Satoshi Nakamoto’s identity points to a deceased cryptographer, whose 1.1 million BTC may remain permanently dormant, reinforcing Bitcoin’s long-term scarcity narrative.

3. In Q1 2026, 21 crypto projects shut down (mainly DeFi and wallets), accelerating bear market cleanup and increasing industry concentration.

4. The EU’s MiCA regulations issued intensively in April, with a single license allowing passporting across Europe, gradually releasing compliance benefits.

Technical Analysis:
BTC: The daily chart yesterday surged near 73K but quickly retraced after the ceasefire broke, closing with a small upper shadow and a slight bearish candle. The current candlestick is below the mid-term downtrend channel (blue trendline), not breaking above the channel’s upper boundary. The rebound is characterized as an oversold bounce rather than a trend reversal. The long upper shadow indicates heavy selling pressure around 73K, with bulls’ counterattack hindered. Short-term moving averages (MA7/14) are trending upward, providing short-term support; however, the price is under pressure from the MA90 and the lower boundary of the descending channel, indicating a clear short-term bullish and medium-term bearish structure. Volume surged during yesterday’s rally but then declined, showing insufficient momentum and confirming that the rally is driven by news and short-term speculation without sustained large capital inflows. MACD has formed a bullish crossover below the zero line, with increasing positive bars, favoring short-term bulls, but the two lines remain near zero, so the rebound momentum has not yet turned into a trend. Moving forward, the market is expected to continue a short-term rebound, watch for a break above 73K, with strong resistance near 74K; support is at 69K, an important defensive line for the short-term bullish structure.

Intraday, focus on resistance at 1.1M-72.5K and support at 69.5K-68.5K.

ETH: Overall performance similar to BTC, but compared to BTC, yesterday’s rally did not reach new highs, with weaker rebound strength.
The daily candle closed as a small bearish candle, with strong resistance at 2300-2350, which is the lower boundary of the descending channel and the MA90. Until broken, it remains a weak rebound within a complete medium-term downtrend. Short-term moving averages (MA7/14) are turning upward and diverging, with the price testing support at the moving averages, indicating the short-term bullish structure is intact; however, the price is under pressure from the MA90 and the blue descending trendline, limiting upward space. Volume during yesterday’s rebound was moderate, then declined, continuing the weak pattern of “rising volume on rebound, decreasing volume on correction,” with cautious buying and insufficient bullish strength. MACD has formed a bullish crossover below zero and is diverging upward, with positive bars maintained, indicating diminishing bearish momentum and a temporary advantage for bulls, but the two lines remain near zero, so the medium-term downtrend persists. Moving forward, the market is expected to continue a short-term rebound, with key resistance at the 2300-2350 descending channel lower boundary; support at 2130-2080, which, if held, maintains the short-term rebound structure.
Intraday, focus on resistance at 2200-2230 and support at 2140-2100.

Altcoins: Due to the ceasefire breakdown, escalation of Middle East conflicts, and rising risk aversion, the altcoin sector has weakened across the board, with yesterday’s declines roughly retracing the previous day’s gains.
Funds are rapidly flowing into BTC/ETH, liquidity in altcoins has sharply shrunk, with no new capital entering, and the rebound has lost momentum. DeFi hacking incidents triggered chain reactions of runs, putting pressure on second-tier public chains, which are caught in a vicious cycle. Over 20 projects shut down in Q1, with no fundamental support for altcoins, valuations continue to decline, becoming abandoned by capital. No short-term rebound opportunities are visible; the market continues to decline, and during broader corrections, altcoins will likely lead the drop. In the medium term, the bubble will be deeply deflated, with no structural opportunities, and capital will continue to cluster in a few projects.

Crypto market volatility is high; caution is advised when entering the market. These are personal views, not recommendations, for sharing only.