🔥Goldman Sachs cuts its Q2 oil price forecast; ceasefire eases supply concerns, but extreme risks remain

On April 9, after the US and Iran reached a temporary ceasefire agreement, Goldman Sachs lowered its Q2 2026 oil price forecast: Brent crude was cut from $99 to $90 per barrel, and WTI crude from $91 to $87 per barrel. The firm said the ceasefire has pushed the risk premium lower, and combined with the gradual recovery of Strait of Hormuz transit volumes, this is the main reason for the downgrade. As a result, Brent fell by about 11% at one point on Monday this week. However, Goldman Sachs kept its second-half oil price forecast unchanged and emphasized that uncertainty on the supply side remains high: if disruptions to Middle Eastern supply continue and production losses intensify, Brent could rise to $115 per barrel in an extreme scenario. In addition, Goldman Sachs also lowered its European TTF natural gas price forecast to €50 per megawatt-hour, but warned that if LNG transportation is disrupted, gas prices could still…