Brothers, this US-Iran drama is more exciting than a TV series. Just less than a day after the ceasefire was announced, the Strait of Hormuz was blocked by Iran. Want to pass with the oil tanker? Not a chance. One second they’re calling it a “historic victory,” and the next they’re directly slapping their own face. Who can handle this rhythm?

The market’s biggest fear isn’t the conflict itself, but this unpredictable up-and-down pace. You have no idea how oil prices will move next. Trying to operate based on intuition? Get ready to be thrown off guard.

How to view the short term? It’s simple: as long as the strait is blocked, supply will tighten directly, and oil prices will definitely go up. How much will they rise? How long will the increase last? It all depends on Iran’s mood and the progress of negotiations. If it’s just minor skirmishes, prices might spike briefly and then fall back; if the conflict escalates and the channel is fully restricted, that will be a new trend in the market.

Looking at the market reaction now, after several rounds of turbulence, many funds have become more cautious. Even if oil prices surge, it won’t be like the first time when everyone blindly rushed in. Instead, they’re observing and gradually entering the market.