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While announcing a two-week temporary ceasefire with Iran, Israel has explicitly stated that the ceasefire does not include Lebanon and continues to pressure Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz. Iran also does not hold back, not only indicating that closing the strait is a possibility but also reopening the strait on the first day of the ceasefire after Israel bombed Lebanon again. The back-and-forth of the geopolitical situation adds a lot of uncertainty to the market.

More importantly, the latest Federal Reserve statement has completely cooled the market’s enthusiasm for rate cuts. The minutes show that the energy price fluctuations caused by the Middle East conflict will push up inflation, significantly delaying expectations of rate cuts, and some even suggest the possibility of rate hikes. High interest rates are likely to persist for a longer period. This macroeconomic bearish signal, combined with geopolitical risks, is not good news for the market.

Looking at the charts, the trend of Bitcoin is indeed not optimistic. On smaller timeframes, a double-top pattern has formed, and it has now broken below the neckline. The candlestick pattern is bearish, with each rebound weaker than the last, clearly indicating that sellers are continuously releasing selling pressure. Short-term support is at 70,400. If this level cannot hold, the decline will definitely accelerate, so everyone should prepare for risks in advance.

$BTC For trading, it is recommended to mainly go short with light positions for trial and error. Short Bitcoin around the 71,580-71,950 range, with a stop loss at 72,330. The initial target is 70,400; if broken, continue to watch the 68,820-67,710 range.

$ETH For Ethereum, also look for short opportunities around the 2,223-2,245 range, with a stop loss at 2,278. The target is 2,166; if broken, look at the 2,110-2,063 range. Short-term trading must be flexible; adjust stop-loss levels according to your position, and avoid blindly holding onto positions!