$BTC Short-term market movements should not be chased after high prices; pay attention to the testing of key resistance and support levels.

BTC closed last month with a reverse T bullish candlestick. Generally speaking, this is not a continuation of a decline, but rather a need to fill in the needle tip. This is consistent with my analysis of the weekly chart pattern in early March. After consecutive bearish candles, a reverse T pattern appears, indicating that while there is selling pressure during the rebound, it is not enough to turn the candlestick bearish. There is buying interest at the bottom, which is a result of testing the upper resistance. Next, there may be a need to fill in gaps, but this is not absolute.

Of course, it is still the beginning of the month, and the market remains highly unpredictable, especially under the serious geopolitical conflict between the US and Iran. Short-term price movements are almost entirely driven by news. Since the market has not broken below 66,000 after multiple tests, it has been oscillating upward. Yesterday, negotiations were announced, and funds flooded into the risk market, causing a sharp short-term rally. The market can surge on a single piece of news or plummet suddenly on a single missile strike.

Therefore, in short-term trading recently, it is important to control positions and risks. Overall, the market is still oscillating within the 66,000-76,000 range, with no clear trend emerging. As long as the price remains within this range, the bullish and bearish shifts are very rapid and common. However, I have always held a bias: ultimately, it is necessary to look below 59,909. Only after acquiring liquidity at lower levels, from various perspectives, will it be more conducive to a major rally later.

Be aware that short-term positive news may not last long; the market will eventually settle into its own rhythm. Yesterday, a strong rally to 72,773 tested the price gap after the previous decline. The price reached the upper band resistance, and a bearish candle today is not surprising. But this is the first decline after a rally. If a new high is made and then falsely breaks through, that would be the best opportunity to short. Specifically, if the price rises again to above 73,000 and then falls below 72,770, it signals a perfect short entry. If the price breaks through without retesting, it could continue higher. The bottom support is around 70,600. If it falls below this level today, it will directly turn into a weak oscillation. A small rebound from this level could be a short-term long opportunity.

In summary, the recent rally driven by news is usually not sustainable. The market remains in a large-range oscillation, with key resistance at 73,000-74,000. Watching for false breakouts here can provide opportunities for medium-term shorts. If a breakout is confirmed and holds, it could fill the monthly needle tip. Short-term support is around 70,600; a break below this level will directly shift into a weak oscillation. If it rebounds from this support, it could be a secondary rally and short-term long. However, regardless of how the market develops or rallies, I still have a bias to revisit the previous low. I believe only by completely clearing the liquidity of the current long positions can a better bottom be formed for accumulation, paving the way for higher highs in the future. Otherwise, everything will seem less rational and rushed.