April 2 Financial Morning Brief: Easing Middle East tensions boost optimism, gold prices approach the 4800 mark, and oil prices fall back below $100.

The Tonghua Finance APP news—On Thursday (April 2, Beijing time), in the early session of Asian trading, spot gold was trading near $4,800 per ounce. The gold price rose for the fifth consecutive trading day, mainly supported by a weaker U.S. dollar. Cautious and optimistic sentiment that the situation in the Middle East may ease also helped lift gold prices. Oil prices fell more than 1% and were trading near $98.85 per barrel. U.S. President Trump said the United States will soon end its war with Iran.

Key focus for the day

Stocks

U.S. stocks closed higher on Wednesday, with all three major indexes rising. The S&P 500 rose 0.72% to close at 6,575.32 points. The Nasdaq Composite rose 116% to close at 21,840.95 points. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.48% to close at 46,565.74 points. Earlier, President Trump hinted that the Middle East conflict may soon be over. He said the U.S. would “withdraw from Iran very soon,” and if necessary, it could carry out “precision strikes” again. The market interpreted this as a positive signal.

Trump’s remarks drove gains in Alphabet, up 3.4%, while Meta and Amazon also rose more than 1%, and major tech players generally moved higher. Intel surged 8.8%, after it announced it would repurchase $14.2 billion worth of shares in Apollo held at its Irish factories. Reports said SpaceX has secretly filed for an IPO, lifting space-related stocks.

A sharp drop in oil prices dragged down the energy sector, which fell 3.9%, while airline stocks jumped 2.3%. For individual stocks, Nike plunged 15.5% to a ten-year low after an unexpected forecast that fourth-quarter sales would decline.

Economic data showed that in March, employment in the U.S. private sector grew steadily, and February retail sales posted their highest year-over-year growth in seven months. Manufacturing activity also rebounded. Market attention has shifted to Friday’s March nonfarm payrolls data, but because the U.S. market will be closed for the Good Friday holiday, trading will pause. As inflation concerns intensify, traders currently believe the likelihood of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates before year-end is higher than cutting rates.

Gold market

Gold prices rose for the fourth consecutive trading day on Wednesday. Spot gold ended up 2.5% at $4,784.22 per ounce. U.S. gold futures rose 2.9% to $4,813.10. The move was largely supported by the U.S. dollar weakening for the second consecutive day, which makes gold priced in dollars more attractive to investors holding other currencies.

Cautious and optimistic sentiment that the Middle East situation may ease also pushed up gold prices. An RJO Futures senior market strategist said that if the situation is downgraded, gold could return above $5,000 and revive expectations for rate cuts. U.S. President Trump said Iran has submitted a ceasefire request, but Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs denied the claim, and it plans to deliver a nationwide address on Thursday.

In terms of economic data, the ADP report showed that in March, employment in the U.S. private sector grew steadily, while February retail sales were strong but high gasoline prices may curb future consumption. Spot silver rose 1.2% to $76.03. Platinum and palladium also increased.

Oil market

Oil prices fell on Wednesday. That was because President Trump said the U.S. will soon end its war with Iran. Brent crude futures dropped 2.7% to $101.16 per barrel, hitting a low of $98.35 during the day. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell about 1.2% to $100.12 per barrel, also hitting a low of $96.50 during the day.

Trump said the U.S. has ensured Iran will not have nuclear weapons and is prepared to “end” the war “very soon.” His comments on Tuesday—that the war would end within two to three weeks—had already caused oil prices to drop by more than $3 per barrel. A SEB analyst said the market is betting that Trump will not allow a supply disruption to last until the middle of May, when gasoline demand picks up in the peak season. The analyst added that a prolonged conflict creates political risk for U.S. gasoline prices, consumer confidence, and the midterm elections.

Despite the continued contradictory signals from the United States and Iran—Trump said Iran has submitted a ceasefire request but Iran denied it, and the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked—analysts expect that even with a ceasefire, energy transportation volumes will be hard to restore quickly. Meanwhile, OPEC’s March crude oil production declined by 7.5 million barrels per day due to the closure of the strait. U.S. crude inventories last week rose more than expected, and Saudi Arabia may raise its official May crude oil selling prices to Asia to a record level.

FX market

The U.S. dollar fell against major currencies such as the Swiss franc and the euro for the second consecutive trading day on Wednesday, as signs that the Middle East conflict may cease-fire increased and market demand for safe-haven assets weakened. U.S. President Trump said the U.S. will soon end its war with Iran and is scheduled to deliver a nationwide address on Thursday. Those remarks drove a reversal in some trades that had previously become popular due to safe-haven demand.

The euro rose 0.27% to $1.1584, extending gains for the second consecutive trading day; the U.S. dollar fell 0.58% to 0.7947 Swiss francs; the dollar versus the Japanese yen also retreated from this year’s highs but was still up slightly 0.09% to 158.85 yen.

Even though attacks continued in many places across the Middle East, oil prices have already fallen significantly in line with ceasefire expectations. Market focus has shifted to the U.S. March jobs report on Friday. If the labor market deteriorates sharply, it could reignite expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut rates this year.

International news

Trump urges the military to carry out a plan to seize nuclear materials from Iran

Local time on April 1, according to a report by The Washington Post, two people familiar with the matter said that the U.S. military has submitted a plan to U.S. President Trump aimed at seizing more than 460 kilograms of high-enriched uranium inside Iran. The report said the plan involves airlifting excavation equipment into the site and building a runway so cargo planes can remove the nuclear materials. According to people familiar with the matter, Trump previously asked the military to submit related proposals. Over the past week, the military briefed him on the complex plan and also explained the significant operational risks involved. The report said Trump’s request indicates that he is considering an extremely sensitive and high-risk special operations mission. (CCTV International News)

The Pentagon will double the number of A-10 attack aircraft deployed to the Middle East

Although Trump said he hopes to end the war with Iran within two to three weeks, the Pentagon will still deploy twice as many A-10 attack aircraft to the Middle East. These aircraft provide support for the advance of ground forces. Two Pentagon officials said on Wednesday that the Air Force will add 18 A-10 attack aircraft to the roughly 12 A-10 attack aircraft already in the region. Previously, U.S. military commanders have used these A-10 attack aircraft to strike Iranian ships and Iran-backed militia groups in Iraq. The slow-moving A-10 “Warthog” attack aircraft is a so-called close air support plane, equipped with a powerful cannon in its nose that can fire up to 70 rounds of 30mm ammunition per second.

Trump says Iran currently “lacks the capability” to develop nuclear weapons

Local time on April 1, U.S. President Trump said he does not care about Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium and said the relevant facilities are “dug very deep.” Trump said the U.S. will continuously monitor the situation via satellite and added that Iran currently “lacks the capability” to develop nuclear weapons, while reiterating that the goal of preventing Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons has been achieved. (CCTV News)

Vance tells mediators Trump has little patience left for reaching a deal with Iran

On Tuesday, U.S. Vice President Vance continued communications with Iran conflict intermediaries through Pakistan. He told them that Trump is no longer patient about reaching an agreement. Vance conveyed to Pakistan that if conditions proposed by the U.S. (such as reopening the Strait of Hormuz) are met, Trump would be open to a ceasefire. Vance said that unless Iran agrees to a deal, pressure on its infrastructure will be further increased.

Middle East’s largest aluminum producer shuts down smelter due to an Iran attack

According to people familiar with the matter, the Middle East’s largest aluminum producer, Emirates Global Aluminium Company (EGA), has suspended operations after Iranian missiles and drones attacked its Al Taweelah smelter in the suburbs of Abu Dhabi. The attack cut power to the plant, forcing the smelting facilities to lose control and shut down production. Metal solidified in the smelting circuit, causing major damage to operations. Another major producer in the region, Bahrain Aluminium Company, also confirmed that it was attacked by Iran over the weekend. These two plants are the world’s largest aluminum plants, with combined annual output of 1.6 million tons each in 2025. The Middle East’s overall production accounts for about 9% of global supply, and EGA and other producers play a key role in supplying aluminum to manufacturers in Europe, Asia, and the U.S.

Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs: Iran’s supreme leader is in good health, but public appearance is delayed due to the war

Iranian media reported on April 1 that Iran’s foreign ministry spokesperson Baghaei said in an interview with the media that Iran’s supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei is in good health, but has delayed making public appearances due to the war. Baghaei told Egypt Today: “He (Mojtaba) is in good health. I think, under the current wartime situation, he may need some time before he can appear publicly, and that is not unusual. But I assure you that the nation, government administration, and defense are all operating efficiently.” (Xinhua News Agency)

Trump becomes the first sitting U.S. president ever to attend Supreme Court arguments

Local time on April 1, the U.S. Supreme Court convened to hear the legality of President Trump’s directive restricting citizenship by birth for people born in the U.S. This highly controversial plan is related to the Trump administration’s efforts to curb immigration. If implemented, it would overturn the long-held understanding of a key clause of the U.S. Constitution. Trump attended the Supreme Court’s oral arguments on the policy restricting birthright citizenship, becoming the first sitting U.S. president in history to personally appear at Supreme Court proceedings. Outside the court, some protesters gathered, and some held anti-Trump slogans. According to Claire Kushman, a resident historian of the Supreme Court Historical Society, Trump is the first sitting president to attend the Supreme Court’s oral arguments. Historically, there have been precedents of 19th-century presidents appearing at Supreme Court cases, but they were all no longer in office at the time, including John Quincy Adams, Grover Cleveland, and Benjamin Harrison. (CCTV News)

Head of the IEA: The April oil supply gap will reach twice that of March

In a podcast released on Wednesday, Fatih Birol, the head of the International Energy Agency, said the agency is considering whether it needs to release oil reserves again in an emergency, and advised governments to take other energy-saving measures, such as promoting remote work and lowering vehicle speed-limit standards. Birol said in a program hosted by Nicolas Tangen, CEO of Norges Bank Investment Management: “The situation in April will be much more severe than in March.” He said that in March, oil supply benefited from cargoes that were already en route before the outbreak of the Iran war, so the situation was relatively calmer. He added: “The oil supply gap in April will be twice as much as in March.” Last month, including the U.S., 32 IEA member countries released 400M barrels of oil from emergency reserves to lower crude oil prices—this was the largest reserve release in the agency’s history. Birol said: “We are assessing market conditions at a frequency of even daily, even hourly, to decide whether to take further intervention measures.”

Domestic news

Starting April 5, domestic route fuel surcharges will be increased

Today (April 1), several airlines including Air China, XiamenAir, and China United are announcing adjustments to the collection standards for fuel surcharges for passengers on domestic routes. XiamenAir’s notice shows that starting from 00:00 on April 5, 2026, the fuel surcharge standard for passengers on domestic routes will be adjusted. For routes of 800 kilometers (inclusive) and below, the fee will be raised from 10 yuan to 60 yuan; for routes above 800 kilometers, it will be raised from 20 yuan to 120 yuan. China United Airlines Co., Ltd.’s notice shows that the fuel surcharge collection standard for passengers on domestic routes is: for segments up to and including 800 kilometers, 60 yuan per passenger; for segments above 800 kilometers, 120 yuan per passenger. According to information available, fuel cost is the largest single cost item in the aviation industry, accounting for 30% to 40% of an airline’s total operating costs. Relevant people said: “This fee increase is closely related to the recent severe volatility in international oil prices. According to statistics by the commodity research institution General Index, aviation kerosene specifically for jet engines has risen from nearly $800 per ton at the end of February to $1,600 per ton, with an increase far higher than other petrochemical products such as gasoline, marine fuel, and naphtha.” (CCTV Finance)

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责任编辑：郭建